ظهور و افول یک مدل؛ فهم سیاست خارجی ترکیه بعد از انقلاب‌های عربی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیأت علمی گروه روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 استادیار روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

مقاله حاضر با هدف مطالعه متغیرهای تأثیرگذار در فهم فراز و نشیب‌های سیاست خارجی ترکیه بعد از انقلاب‌های عربی نگارش یافته است. انقلاب‌های عربی به‌عنوان یک شوک برون‌زا با تحول در ساخت قدرت و هویت منطقه‌ای و با فراهم ساختن فرصت‌ها و تهدیدهای محیطی، چشم‌انداز سیاست خارجی تعامل‌گرایانه و کارایی مدل حکومتی موفق ترکیه را با آزمونی سخت مواجه ساخته و سیاست خارجی این کشور را به‌تدریج به سمت خاورمیانه‌ای شدن سوق داده است. پژوهش حاضر با یک مطالعه تحلیلی- میدانی و با بهره‌گیری از مفروضه‌های نظری تغییر در سیاست خارجی به دنبال پاسخگویی به این پرسش‌ها بوده که «چه مؤلفه‌هایی (ساختاری- داخلی) و چگونه به رویکردهای سیاست خارجی ترکیه بعد از انقلاب‌های عربی شکل داده‌اند؟ رهبران ترکیه چه برداشتی از تحولات انقلابی خاورمیانه داشته‌اند و برداشت اردوغان از نقش و جایگاه ترکیه در شکل‌دهی به یک نظم اخوانی در منطقه چگونه به یک رفتار تهاجمی و هویتی شکل داده است؟» بر این اساس، مقاله حاضر با تحلیل مؤلفه‌های ساختاری و داخلی تعیین‌کننده در تغییر رویکردهای سیاست خارجی ترکیه، نقش متغیرهای میانجی را برجسته کرده است؛ به‌ویژه سوءبرداشت رهبران «AKP» از موازنه قدرت منطقه‌ای، سوءمحاسبات آن‌ها از قابلیت‌های مادی و هویتی خود و ظرفیت‌های متحدان منطقه‌ای‌شان برای تبدیل شدن به جایگاه رهبری در خاورمیانه عربی.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Rise and Fall of a Model; Understanding Turkey's Foreign Policy in the Post-Arab Revolutions

نویسندگان [English]

  • Vali Golmohammadi 1
  • Mohsen Eslami 2
1 Assistant ptofessor at Tarbiat Modares University, Department of International Relations.
2 Assistant ptofessor at Tarbiat Modares University, Department of International Relations.
چکیده [English]

This paper aims to understand the key variables influencing changes and continuities of Turkish foreign policy in the post- Arab revolutions, in a systematic way. The Arab revolutions, as an exogenous shock by transforming the structure of regional power and identity, providing uncertain opportunities and threats, has severely changed Turkish assertive and soft power-based foreign policy vision. Over the past decade, regional developments have provided space for Turkey to seek a more active and assertive role in the region, though Turkey’s own limitations, policy choices, and regional dynamics have somewhat restricted its ability to do so. This shift has gradually Middle Easternized Turkey’s foreign policy directions. Through the prism of the Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA), this paper seeks to formulate; what drivers (structural-internal) and how to shape Turkey's assertive and security-based foreign policy behavior in the post- Arab revolutions? To do so, the paper by analyzing the structural and internal determinants in changing Turkey's foreign policy approaches, highlights the role of mediating variables; especially the AKP leaders’ misperception to seize regional leadership, overestimation of their material and discursive capacities, and miscalculations of the shifting Middle East geopolitics and regional rival’s capabilities.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Arab Revolutions
  • the Middle East
  • Turkish Model
  • Foreign Policy
  • Leaders Perception and Misperception
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دوره 11، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 41
این شماره فصلنامه روابط خارجی با تأخیر و در سال 1399 منتشر می‌شود. به دلیل رعایت تسلسل شمارگان فصلنامه، تاریخ آن به سال 1398 است.
خرداد 1398
صفحه 97-137