پژوهشـکده تحقیقـات راهبردی مجمـع تشخیـص مصلـحت نظـام فصلنامه روابط خارجی 2008-5419 17 3 2025 11 22 Presenting a strategic foresight model to face the strategic latent technology of Saudi Arabia ارائه الگوی آینده نگاری راهبردی جهت مواجهه با نهفتگی راهبردی فناوری عربستان سعودی 229 260 225580 10.22034/fr.2025.465282.1566 FA حسن بیک محمدلو عضو هیئت علمی پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی و پژوهشگر حوزه آینده پژوهی، تهران، ایران 0009-0002-6848-805X مصطفی رضوانی اصیل دانشجوی دکترای روابط بین‌الملل، تهران، ایران مهدی قلیزاده زاوشتی دانش‌آموخته دکتری و پژوهشگر حوزه آینده‌پژوهی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2024 08 10 Saudi Arabia formulated Vision 2030 with the hope of diversifying its economy and changing its nature from oil dependence to a production-oriented economy, and has considered the role of technology to be key to achieving this vision. Given Saudi Arabia’s position as Iran’s main competitor in Vision 1404, it is important to examine Saudi Arabia’s strategic technological latency and potential threats against Iran. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to present a strategic foresight model for confronting Saudi Arabia’s technological latency, which was conducted using a data-driven method. The data collection tool is field studies and structured and semi-structured in-depth interviews with 15 managers and academic elites. Based on the research findings, the central category is “Confronting the strategic technological latency in Saudi Arabia.” Causal conditions have four dimensions: technological, business, and macroeconomic and political variables. The strategies in question include: the growth of entrepreneurship in the field of technology and job creation in Iran, the priority of the digital economy as the driving force of Iran's economic growth, the growth of technology in Iran's military, monitoring the programs of the Musk Foundation, monitoring the programs and research of Saudi universities, monitoring the development projects of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, monitoring social developments and cyberspace (especially social networks), and monitoring Saudi technology. The background conditions also include: infrastructure conditions and institutional and legal conditions. Intervening conditions also affect strategies through political challenges and the structure of the workforce and knowledge, which will ultimately lead to the consequences of preventing Iran from changing the balance of Saudi economic or military power in the region, preventing Saudi Arabia from using technology latent in a destructive way, Iran's countermeasures in competition with the growth of technology in Saudi Arabia, information about the latest state of technology in Saudi Arabia, awareness of the latest state of technology latent in a way that is appropriate to Saudi policies in the region. <strong>Keywords</strong>: Strategic Technology Embeddedness, Grounded Theory, Saudi Arabia, Vision 2030   <strong>Extended Abstract</strong> Introduction and Problem Statement Saudi Arabia has undertaken an ambitious transformation plan through its Vision 2030, aiming to shift from an oil-based economy to a knowledge-based, technologically driven one. This initiative positions technology not just as a growth enabler but also as a strategic asset that could alter regional power dynamics. In light of Saudi Arabia’s technological acceleration and geopolitical rivalry with Iran—particularly within the framework of Iran’s 1404 national vision—understanding the concept of “strategic technological latency” becomes critical. This research addresses how Iran can proactively develop strategic foresight mechanisms to monitor, anticipate, and respond to the latent technological capabilities of Saudi Arabia. The key research question is: how can Iran formulate a model to confront the  potential threats posed by the strategic latency of Saudi Arabian technology? Methodology The research adopts a qualitative approach grounded in the grounded theory methodology, focusing on the extraction of a conceptual model. Data collection was conducted via in-depth, structured, and semi-structured interviews with 15 experts, including policy-makers, military officials, and academic elites. The analysis proceeded through the open, axial, and selective coding phases. In the open coding stage, 156 primary concepts were identified. These were categorized into 43 sub-categories and 9 main categories during the axial coding process. The final selective coding stage resulted in a paradigm model highlighting the relationships between causal conditions, contextual and intervening factors, strategic responses, and their consequences. Findings and Results The core category identified is “Confronting the Strategic Latency of Technology in Saudi Arabia.” Causal conditions fall into four categories: 1.     Technological Factors – including the intrinsic capability and exponential development of technologies. 2.     Business Environment – shaped by increased globalization and competitive shifts. 3.     Macroeconomic Factors – reflecting Saudi Arabia’s push for economic diversification and digital economy development. 4.     Political Factors – rooted in ideological and regional competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The contextual conditions include infrastructural and institutional aspects, such as: v The establishment of the King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST), v The National Cybersecurity Authority, v The launch of NEOM smart city, v Legal reforms and the introduction of a Green Card system to attract foreign talent. v Intervening conditions influence the strategy through: v Political constraints within Saudi Arabia (e.g., the resistance of conservative elites), v Economic vulnerabilities (e.g., dependence on foreign investment), v Labor market issues (e.g., a weak private sector, skill shortages, high public sector reliance). v Strategic Responses Proposed for Iran include: v Enhancing entrepreneurship in high-tech sectors, v Prioritizing the digital economy as a driver of national growth, v Developing military technological capabilities, v Monitoring Saudi initiatives such as the Misk Foundation and Vision 2030 projects, v Tracking scientific research and academic outputs from institutions like Al-Madina University, v Observing social media trends and virtual spaces to detect signs of technological policy shifts. v Consequences of implementing these strategies would include: v Preventing Saudi Arabia from altering regional military or economic balances, v Dissuading the use of disruptive or dual-use technologies against Iranian interests, v Equipping Iran with updated knowledge of Saudi’s technological advancements, v Facilitating proactive and informed counterstrategies, especially in fields like drone warfare, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence. The model emphasizes that technological latency often lies dormant until external conditions activate its strategic potential. If Iran does not develop anticipatory strategies, it risks falling behind in regional tech-driven power equations. Discussion and Conclusion The research provides a paradigm model illustrating how Iran can systematically address and anticipate the implications of Saudi Arabia’s strategic technological growth. The significance of this study lies in highlighting the concept of “strategic technological latency” as a driver of regional imbalance if left unmonitored. While Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 offers a roadmap for economic diversification, its technological dimension—ranging from satellite programs and AI investments to smart cities—poses potential geopolitical risks. Iran’s response must be multifaceted: investing in digital infrastructure, fostering innovation, and establishing institutional mechanisms for technological intelligence. Policymakers should recognize that the line between civilian and military technology is increasingly blurred. Thus, strategic foresight must encompass both domains. Moreover, Iran must engage more actively in international technology partnerships to reduce vulnerability to regional adversaries. Recommendations for future research include exploring how international actors (e.g., the U.S., China) indirectly influence regional technological latency and assessing the resilience of Iran’s domestic innovation ecosystem in response to external technological disruptions. عربستان سعودی، چشم‌انداز ۲۰۳۰ را با امید تنوع‌بخشی به اقتصاد و تغییر ماهیت آن از وابستگی به نفت به اقتصاد تولیدمحور تدوین نمود و برای نیل به این چشم‌انداز، نقش فناوری را کلیدی برشمرده است. با توجه به جایگاه عربستان به‌عنوان رقیب اصلی ایران در چشم‌انداز 1404، بررسی نهفتگی راهبردی فناوری و تهدیدات احتمالی عربستان علیه ایران حائز اهمیت است. بنابراین هدف اصلی این پژوهش، ارائه الگوی آینده‌نگاری راهبردی مواجهه با نهفتگی فناوری عربستان است که با روش داده‌بنیاد انجام شده است. ابزار گردآوری اطلاعات، مطالعات میدانی و مصاحبه عمیق ساخت‌یافته و نیمه‌ساخت‌یافته با 15 نفر از مدیران و نخبگان دانشگاهی است. براساس یافته‌های پژوهش، مقوله محوری «مواجهه با نهفتگی راهبردی فناوری در عربستان» است. شرایط علی دارای چهار بُعد متغیرهای فناوری، کسب‌وکار و اقتصاد کلان و سیاسی است. راهبردهای مورد نظر عبارت است از: رشد کارآفرینی در حوزه فناوری و اشتغال‌زایی ایران، اولویت اقتصاد دیجیتال به‌عنوان موتور محرکه رشد اقتصادی ایران، رشد فناوری در حوزه نظامی ایران، رصد برنامه‌های بنیاد مسک، رصد برنامه‌ها و پژوهش‌های دانشگاه‌های عربستان، رصد پروژه‌های توسعه‌ای چشم‌انداز 2030 عربستان، رصد تحولات اجتماعی و فضای مجازی (به‌ویژه شبکه‌های اجتماعی) و رصد فناوری عربستان. شرایط زمینه‌ای نیز عبارت است از: شرایط زیرساختی و شرایط نهادی و قانونی. شرایط مداخله‌گر نیز از طریق چالش‌های سیاسی و ساختار نیروی کار و دانش بر راهبردها تأثیر می‌گذارند که در نهایت به پیامدهای جلوگیری ایران از تغییر در توازن قدرت اقتصادی یا نظامی عربستان در منطقه، جلوگیری از استفاده مخرب عربستان از نهفتگی فناوری، اقدام متقابل ایران در رقابت با رشد فناوری در عربستان، اطلاع از آخرین وضعیت فناوری در عربستان، آگاهی از آخرین وضعیت نهفتگی فناوری و کنشگری متناسب با سیاست‌های عربستان در منطقه منجر خواهد شد. https://frqjournal.csr.ir/article_225580_0d1485c41e50f58aa3f29d82741c61b8.pdf