پژوهشـکده تحقیقـات راهبردی مجمـع تشخیـص مصلـحت نظـام فصلنامه روابط خارجی 2008-5419 18 1 2026 05 22 Armenia as an Arena for Regional Competition: An Analysis of the Conflicting Interests of Iran and Azerbaijan with an Emphasis on the Balance of Threat ارمنستان به‌عنوان عرصه‌ای برای رقابت منطقه‌ای: تحلیلی بر منافع متعارض ایران و آذربایجان با تکیه بر موازنه تهدید 127 162 241481 10.22034/fr.2026.537501.1692 FA امید عزیزیان استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و انسانی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران. 0009-0003-5707-0042 بهرام نصرالهی زاده استادیار گروه جغرافیا، گرایش جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی،دانشگاه کردستان ، سنندج، ایران 0000-0003-2844-8504 Journal Article 2025 07 28 The geopolitical developments of the South Caucasus following the Second Nagorno Karabakh War, particularly those centered on Armenia’s position in initiatives such as the Zangezur Corridor, have intensified the conflict of interests between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan. This study seeks to explain the causes and dimensions of this confrontation by examining the role of Armenia as an effective geopolitical variable in the strategic competition between the two actors. The main research question is how Armenia operates within the structure of conflicting interests between Iran and Azerbaijan and through what mechanisms it has become an influential factor in the regional balance of threat. The research hypothesis argues that the Islamic Republic of Iran, by maintaining its geopolitical linkage with Armenia, opposing territorial and border changes, and making use of Armenia’s diplomatic and geoeconomic capacities, pursues indirect balancing against security threats arising from the deepening cooperation of Azerbaijan with Israel and Turkey. In this context, Armenia functions not merely as a neighboring state, but as a structural instrument in Iran’s strategy to contain and manage surrounding threats. The theoretical framework of the study is based on Stephen Walt’s balance of threat theory, which emphasizes the role of threat perception in shaping the foreign policy behavior of states. Within this framework, the geopolitical and security alignment of Azerbaijan with Israel and Turkey, along with efforts to establish a transnational corridor through Armenian territory, are analyzed as threat generating variables for Iran. The research adopts a qualitative methodology based on documentary analysis, examination of official statements, and monitoring of the diplomatic activities of relevant actors during the period from 2020 to 2024. Extended Abstract Introduction The geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus following the "Second Nagorno-Karabakh War," particularly regarding Armenia's role in regional initiatives such as the "Zangezur Corridor," have led to a divergence of interests between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan. This study aims to explain the causes and dimensions of this confrontation by examining Armenia's role as a geographical arena for the strategic rivalry between these two actors. The main research question is: What role does Armenia play in the conflict of interests between Iran and Azerbaijan, and how has it become a key factor in the regional balance of threat? The central hypothesis posits that, under current circumstances, Armenia serves as a balancing tool for Iran against the security threats posed by Azerbaijan’s growing alliances with Israel and Turkey. The theoretical framework of the study is based on Stephen Walt’s Balance of Threat Theory, which emphasizes the role of threat perception in shaping states’ foreign policy behavior. In this context, Azerbaijan’s increasing proximity to Israel and Turkey, along with its efforts to establish a transit corridor through Armenian territory, are analyzed as threat-inducing factors for Iran. The research methodology is qualitative, relying on document analysis, official statements, and diplomatic movements during the "2020 to 2024" period. Findings indicate that Armenia has not only become embedded in the Iran–Azerbaijan strategic confrontation but also emerged as a pivotal factor in Iran’s regional balancing strategy. This dynamic has strengthened Tehran–Yerevan ties and signals the persistence of geopolitical competition in the South Caucasus in the near future. Introduction competition and tensions among regional and extra-regional powers over the past decades. This region, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of the newly established republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan, has become one of the main axes of geopolitical conflicts. Iran, as the southern neighbor of both countries, has historically sought to maintain a balance of power in this area and prevent the presence and influence of extra-regional actors. The Islamic Republic of Iran, due to Armenia’s unique geopolitical position, places special importance on this country; a matter that has made Tehran sensitive to any changes in the regional geopolitical balance. In this regard, Azerbaijan’s attempts to create a corridor through Armenian territory aimed at accessing Nakhchivan have involuntarily involved Iran in the geopolitical dimensions of the conflict between the two countries. Currently, Armenia holds a different and more complex position in the regional geopolitical structure than in the past. Research Question The main research question is: What role does Armenia play in the confrontation of interests between Iran and Azerbaijan, and how has it become a key factor in the regional threat balance? Research Hypothesis The research hypothesis posits that the Islamic Republic of Iran, by maintaining its geopolitical linkage with Armenia, opposing territorial changes, and leveraging Armenia’s diplomatic and geo-economic capacities, seeks to engage in indirect balancing against the security threats arising from Azerbaijan’s deepening cooperation with Israel and Turkey. In this framework, Armenia functions not merely as a neighboring state but as a structural instrument in Iran’s strategy to contain and manage surrounding threats. Methodology (and Theoretical Framework if there are) In this study, the Threat Balance Theory is specifically employed to analyze the competition between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan in Armenia. This theory provides an analytical framework to examine the security, political, and economic threats that Iran and Azerbaijan face in the South Caucasus region. Results and discussion An analysis of Iran’s foreign policy pattern in the South Caucasus, based on the theoretical framework of Threat Balance, indicates that Tehran’s approach to developments in this region is driven less by traditional power balancing and more by the perception and management of threats arising from the aggressive intentions and potential capacities of rival actors. The Islamic Republic of Iran, with a profound understanding of the strategic linkages between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel, is adopting a multidimensional approach aimed at neutralizing security, geopolitical, and geoeconomic threats in its surrounding environment. Within this framework, Armenia has emerged as a potential partner for creating a balance against rival power axes. Strengthening political and cultural ties with Yerevan, supporting the existing border status, and actively opposing initiatives such as the Zangezur Corridor all reflect Iran’s orientation toward a threat-balancing strategy. Iran’s foreign policy behavior in recent years indicates that the perception of threats, rather than the material power of actors, has been the primary driver of its security and regional decision-making. Iran perceives Azerbaijan not merely due to its military capabilities, but primarily because of its strategic partnerships with actors opposing Iran’s national interests. The combination of these threats has pushed Iran’s foreign policy toward adopting deterrent, defensive, and balanced positions. In this regard, emphasizing the principle of “border stability” as a national security red line, conducting military drills near its northwestern borders, and issuing explicit diplomatic statements against new transit projects all signal Iran’s high level of strategic sensitivity to developments in the South Caucasus. This deterrence-oriented approach toward threatening alliances reflects an active strategy to counter unwanted geopolitical changes. An analysis of current geopolitical trends in the South Caucasus outlines three possible scenarios for the future of Iran’s relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia: v Continuation of Iran’s balancing policy: If current trends persist, Iran will continue its threat-balancing policy and, by deepening its relations with Armenia, will seek to limit the influence of the Turkey–Azerbaijan–Israel axis. This approach will aim to prevent structural changes in the regional order. v Escalation of geopolitical tensions: If Azerbaijan and its allies continue unilateral efforts to alter geopolitical borders and establish new transit routes, the likelihood of political or even security confrontations will increase. In this scenario, Iran may move toward forming new regional alliances to counter these developments. v Possibility of relative de-escalation and adjustment of relations: If threatening variables such as the presence of extra-regional actors or attempts to change borders—are contained, the possibility of Iran and Azerbaijan entering a regional security dialogue will rise. Although this scenario faces significant obstacles under current conditions, it cannot be entirely ruled out in the long term. In summary, Iran’s approach to developments in the South Caucasus is rooted in a realistic and threat-based strategy, which seeks to prevent the emergence of geopolitical changes contrary to its strategic interests by leveraging regional instruments in a calculated and proactive manner. Conclusion The geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, especially the structural changes in the power relations and the formation of new axes of regional cooperation and competition, have posed a complex and multidimensional challenge for the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this context, Iran, which shares direct borders and security concerns related to regional developments, requires a deep and comprehensive understanding of composite and perceptual threats that go beyond mere military and economic power indicators. Therefore, analyzing Iran’s behavior toward these developments without employing the theoretical framework of threat balance which considers threat perception, actors’ intentions, and alliance linkages would be incomplete. تحولات ژئوپلیتیکی قفقاز جنوبی پس از جنگ دوم قره‌باغ، به‌ویژه با محوریت جایگاه ارمنستان در طرح‌هایی نظیر کریدور زنگزور، موجب تشدید تعارض منافع میان جمهوری اسلامی ایران و جمهوری آذربایجان شده است. این پژوهش با هدف تبیین علل و ابعاد این تقابل، به بررسی نقش ارمنستان به‌عنوان یک متغیر ژئوپلیتیکی مؤثر در رقابت راهبردی دو بازیگر می‌پردازد. پرسش اصلی پژوهش آن است که ارمنستان چگونه در ساختار تقابل منافع ایران و آذربایجان ایفای نقش می‌کند و از چه طریقی به عاملی اثرگذار در موازنه تهدید منطقه‌ای بدل شده است؟ فرضیه پژوهش براین‌اساس استوار است که جمهوری اسلامی ایران از طریق حفظ پیوند ژئوپلیتیکی با ارمنستان، مخالفت با تغییرات مرزی و بهره‌گیری از ظرفیت‌های دیپلماتیک و ژئواقتصادی این کشور، در پیِ موازنه‌سازی غیرمستقیم در برابر تهدیدات امنیتی ناشی از تعمیق همکاری‌های آذربایجان با اسرائیل و ترکیه است؛ به‌گونه‌ای که ارمنستان نه صرفاً یک همسایه، بلکه به‌عنوان یک ابزار ساختاری در راهبرد مهار تهدیدات پیرامونی ایران عمل می‌کند. چهارچوب نظری پژوهش مبتنی بر نظریه «موازنه تهدید» استفن والت است که بر نقش ادراک تهدید در شکل‌دِهی به رفتار سیاست خارجی کشورها تأکید دارد. در این چهارچوب، نزدیکی ژئوپلیتیکی و امنیتی آذربایجان به اسرائیل و ترکیه و تلاش برای ایجاد گذرگاه فرامرزی از طریق خاک ارمنستان، به‌عنوان متغیر‌های تهدیدزا برای ایران تحلیل می‌شوند. روش تحقیق کیفی و مبتنی بر تحلیل اسنادی، بررسی بیانیه‌های رسمی و رصد تحرکات دیپلماتیک بازیگران در بازۀ زمانی ۲۰۲۰ تا ۲۰۲۴ است.

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