International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

China's regional hegemony in Central Asia and the threat balance with Russia

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ali Akbar Jafari 1
Mehrdad fallah 2
1 Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Iran
2 Ph.D. Student of International Relations, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/fr.2023.382591.1345
Abstract
Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, China's presence in Central Asia has increased. Russia and China adhere to a functional division of duties in which China focuses on economic activities and Russia as the guarantor of regional security. The statement of the functional division of duties between the two governments has been questioned due to China's increasingly active presence in the military-security in the region; And China's influence throughout is increasing. Indeed, in Central Asia, a defensive Russia is facing an aggressive China. Also, the war in Ukraine will have a negative impact on the investment process and the future relations of Central Asia with Moscow, and the foreign policy and geopolitical image of the region must wait for the hegemony of China. The main question in this article is, despite the regional goals of Russia and China, what are the factors of Russia's decline and the evolution of China's role in Central Asia? The hypothesis of this research emphasizes that the growing difference between the two countries is due to their power capabilities; the interactions between Russia and China in Central Asia reveal this difference as the most vulnerable aspect of their relations. The theoretical basis of the article is based on the threat balance and the research method is descriptive-analytical. Also, the findings of the research in this regard argue that China, with its active presence in Central Asia and the establishment of a China-centered order in this region, has struck a regional balance against Russia through the One Belt One Road policy.
Keywords
" Russia"
"China"
"Central Asia"
"One Belt One Road"
"Shanghai Cooperation Organization"
"Hegemony"

Subjects

AIIB. (2021). Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. Our Projects. Project List. https:// www.aiib.org/en/projects/list/index.html.
Avdaliani, Emil (2022). Russia’s War Creates Opportunities for China in Central Asia. Available at: https://chinaobservers.eu/russias-war-creates-opportunities-for-china-in-central-asia/
Bobo, Lo. (2008). Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
CIA World Fact Book (2022). Economy China and Russia. https://www.cia.gov
Hashimova, Umida (2021). Before and Beyond 5G: Central Asia’s Huawei Connections. The Diplomat.
Hess, Maximilian (2020). Russia and Central Asia: Putin’s Most Stable Region?. Orbis, 64(2), 421-433.
Jardin, Bradley & Edward Lemon (2020). In Russia’s Shadow: China’s Rising Security Presence in Central Asia. Kennan Cable, (52), Wilson Center.
Kaczmarski, Marcin (2020). The Sino-Russian Relationship and the West. Survival, 62(6), 199-212.
Kerimbaev, Erzhan; Mukhametkhanuly, Nabizhan and Turgenbay, Aynur and Zaura Nabizhankyz (2020). Main Factors of China’s Soft Power in Central Asia. Central Asia and the Caucasus. https://www.ca-c.org/online/2020/journal_eng/cac-01/02.shtml
Kusa, Iliya (2022).  China’s Strategic Calculations in the Russia-Ukraine War. Kennan Institute, available at: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/chinas-strategic-calculations-russia-ukraine-war
Laurelle, Marlene & Dylan Royce (2020). No Great Game: Central Asia’s Public Opinion on Russia. China and the U.S. Kennan Cable Wilson Center, (58), August 1, 2022.
Leskina, Natalia & Emma Sabzalieva (2021). Constructing a Eurasian Higher Education Region: ‘Points of Correspondence’ between Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union and China’s Belt and Road Imitative in Central Asia. Eurasian Geography and Economics, DOI: 10.1080/15387216.2020.1866997
Liakin-Forolov, Igor (2020). Rossiia usilivaet gumannitarnoe sotrudnichestvo v sfere Tadzhikistanskogo obrazovaniia i prodolzhaet aktivno vystupat’ za sokhrannost’ russkogo iazyka v regione. zaiavil Posol RF PT Igor’ Liakin-Frolov. February 11, 2021. https://www.mid.ru/ru/maps/tj/-/asset_- publisher/VfByAd5UOwu3/content/id/4034071
Lo, Kinling (2020). China Increases its Presence in Russia’s Former Central Asian Backyard. South China Morning Post, August 2022.
Lobell, S. E. (2010). Structural Realism/Offensive and Defensive Realism. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. Retrieved: June 4, 2022.
Otorbaev, Djoomart (2021). Do Russia and China Have Coordinated Strategies Towards Central Asia?. Valdai Discussion Club, January 12, 2021.
Pantucci, Raffaello (2019). The Dragon’s Cuddle: China’s Security Power Projection into Central Asia and Lessons for the Belt and Road Initiative. In Securing the Belt and Road Initiative: China’s Evolving Military Engagement Along the Silk Roads, (80). 59-70.
Putin, Vladimir (2019). Zasedanie Diskussionnogo Kluba Valdai (meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club). http://kremlin.ru/events/ president/news/61719
Savin, Igor (2020). Rossiia i Obespechenie Bezopasnosti Stran Tsentral’noi Azii: Interv’yu s Igorem Savinom. CAA Network. https:// caa-network.org/archives/19532.
Shih, Gerry (2019). In Central Asia’s Forbidding Highlands, a Quiet Newcomer: Chinese Troops. The Washington Post.
Skalamera, Morena (2018). Explaining the 2014 Sino-Russian Gas Breakthrough: The Primacy of Domestic Politics. Europe-Asia Studies, 70(1), 90-107.
Sukhankin, Sergei (2020). The Security Component of the BRI in Central Asia, Part Two: China’s (Para) Military Efforts to Promote Security in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. China Brief, 20(14), August 12, 2022.
Trade Map (2021). Bilateral Trade Between China and Central Asian Republics. (observed at: 2022/08/13). available at: https://www.trademap.org/Bilateral_TS.aspx?nvpm
Umarov, Temur (2021). Dangerous Liaisons: How China is Taming Central Asian Elites. Carnegie Moscow Center.
Van Der Kley, Dirk (2020). Chinese Companies Localization in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Problems of Post-Communism, 67(3), 241-250.
Wilson, Jeanne L. (2021). Russia and China in Central Asia: Deepening Tensions in the Relationship. Acta Via Serica, 6(1), 55-90.
World Bank (2021). International Debt Statistics. Data. https://datatopics.worldbank. org/debt/ids/
Yau, Niva Tsz Yan (2020). Governance Effects of China in Central Asia. Program Event. Foreign Policy Research Institute.