International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

Constructing Strategic Scenarios for Energy Resource Exchanges in the Persian Gulf Following the Russia-Ukraine War Crisis: A Futuristic Research Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ali Basiriniya 1
Abdersoul Hasani Far 2
Yones Latifian 3
1 Assistant Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
3 MA Student of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
10.22034/fr.2024.416708.1439
Abstract
The recent Russia-Ukraine military crisis has precipitated profound transformations and fundamental shifts in international paradigms of energy supply and exchange. Leveraging its strategic dominance and pressure leverage in oil and gas, Russia has posed significant impediments and challenges for Western nations. Amidst this, the strategic significance of the Persian Gulf region as one of the largest and most vital sources of energy supply for Western powers has become further accentuated and highlighted.The central research question examines how exchange structures and patterns pertaining to energy resources within the geopolitically salient Persian Gulf region are anticipated to evolve given the tumult of the Ukraine crisis. The methodological framework encompassed qualitative, quantitative, and futures research approaches. In-depth expert interviews with 10 specialists across regional studies, international relations, and energy economics constituted the qualitative component. Key variables were then identified via thematic analysis and categorization. Structural equation modeling (MICMAC) was further utilized to decipher inter-variable relationships. Finally, grounded in futures research principles, 5 probable scenarios across different key variable states were designed and formulated based on the findings of the preceding phases. Findings indicate that modernization and expansion endeavors within the region’s oil and gas industry capacities, coupled with an elevated Iranian role, can positively impact European energy markets.
Keywords
Energy Exchange
Russia-Ukraine War
Persian Gulf
Scenario Development
Futuristic Studies

Subjects

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