تغییرات اقلیمی؛ ظهور و تشدید بحران های فراگیر امنیتی بین المللی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دکترای جغرافیای سیاسی و پژوهشگر ارشد مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی

چکیده

مجموعه‌ای از عوامل با محوریت اصلی انسان در چند سدۀ اخیر باعث شده تا فضای جغرافیایی جهان، تحولات اساسی را در ابعاد مختلف تجربه کند؛ تحولاتی که برآیند و ماحصل آن، تغییر در اقلیم جهان بوده است. تغییرات اقلیمی پیامدهایی را در ابعاد مختلف برای جهان به همراه دارد، از جمله مهم‌ترین آنها در حوزۀ امنیت بین‌المللی می‌باشد. هدف پژوهش حاضر که با استفاده از روش توصیفی _ تحلیلی انجام یافته، بررسی پیامدهای تغییرات اقلیمی در این حوزه می‌باشد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد تأثیرپذیری امنیت، به‌ویژه امنیت بین‌المللی، از تغییر اقلیم بسیار زیاد است، زیرا اقلیم شکل‌دهندۀ ویژگی‌ها و کارویژه‌های فضاهای جغرافیایی جهان است. لذا ثبات و نظم طبیعی نسبی حاکم بر جهان و کشورهای آن به دلیل ثبات اقلیمی آن در طول دهه‌های اخیر بوده است و اگر تغییراتی در آن صورت گیرد، بی‌ثباتی و ناامنی حاکم خواهد شد و تهدیدات مختلفی را ایجاد یا تشدید خواهد کرد. به‌گونه‌ای که می‌توان گفت بزرگ‌ترین و خطرناک‌ترین تهدید فعلی و آیندۀ کره زمین، تغییرات اقلیمی است و پیامدهای آن به مراتب بیشتر از هر جنگی است. از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های تغییرات اقلیمی برای امنیت بین‌المللی می‌توان به خطر افتادن کل یا بخشی از قلمروهای ملی کشورهای ساحلی و جزیره‌ای، ایجاد و تشدید بی‌ثباتی و ناامنی بین‌المللی، ظهور و گسترش تروریسم و افراط‌گرایی، ایجاد یا تشدید اختلافات و منازعات مرزی دریایی، تضعیف امنیت دریایی، ایجاد و تشدید بحران‌های بین‌المللیِ مهاجرت و آب، ایجاد یا گسترش حکومت‌های ضعیف و شکننده، تغییر در موقعیت و اهمیت ژئوپلیتیکی برخی از مناطق مهم جهان، به خطر افتادن تجارت بین‌المللی، افزایش رقابت‌های بین‌المللی و ... اشاره کرد. شایان ذکر است تغییرات اقلیمی باعث شکل‌گیری مسیرهای جدید دریایی و برای برخی از مناطق و کشورهای جهان به‌ویژه قطب شمال به ایجاد فرصت‌هایی منجر می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Climate change; emerging and Intensification of pervasive international security crises

نویسنده [English]

  • Behador Gholami
Ph.D. in Political Geography and senior researcher of Islamic Parliament Research Center of The Islamic Republic of Iran
چکیده [English]

A set of factors with a focus on human in recent centuries has caused the global geographic space experience major changes in various aspects, such a change that its outcome and result is the change in climate of the world. Climate change has various consequences for the world that among the most important in international security domain. In this regard, the present study employing a descriptive-analytical method, seeks to review this consequences. The results show that the security, especially international security, is so much under influential of the climate change, because climate shape the characteristics and functions of geographical spaces of the world. Therefore, the relative stability and order of the world and its countries has been due to its climate stability over recent decades, and if changes are made, instability and insecurity will prevail and will create or exacerbate various threats. It should say, the biggest and most dangerous threat of current and future of the earth is climate change and its consequences are far more than any war. The most important challenges of climate change for international security include: Endangering the all or part of territory of the coastal and island states, creation and intensification of international instability and insecurity, emerging and spreading of terrorism and extremism, creating or exacerbating of maritime boundaries disputes, weakening of the maritime security, creating and exacerbating of international migration and water crises, creating or expanding weak and fragile states, changing the geopolitical position and importance of some of the important regions of the world, the threat of international trade, increased international competition and so on. It is worth noting that, climate change is shaping some new maritime routes and creates opportunities for some regions and countries of the world, especially the Arctic.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Changes
  • International Security
  • Sea level rise
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دوره 11، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 43
این شماره فصلنامه روابط خارجی با تأخیر و در سال 1399 منتشر می‌شود. به دلیل رعایت تسلسل شمارگان فصلنامه، تاریخ آن به سال 1398 است.
آذر 1398
صفحه 5-36