International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

Futures Studies the Approaches of the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Area and Strategies for Studying the National Interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mohsen Noruzi 1
Mehrdad Alepour 2
1 Ph.D. of Future Studies, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Graduate of International Relations, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran.
Abstract
In the present study, while analyzing the threats posed by the actions of the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific strategic area, the future of the effects of competition on Iran's interests is analyzed using the scriptwriting method. It should be noted that the leading research based on the obtained results is of practical type and considering that during it to answer the main question of the research, namely how the future threats of Sino-US approaches in the Indo-Pacific area to Iran's interests, It deals with a variety of qualitative methods of script writing called GBN. In addition, the present study is descriptive in nature and is descriptive of the current context of the conflict and the factors that shape the current and future threats of Washington-Beijing relations. Attempts have been made to extract key factors and drivers of these relationships through interviews with experts and focus groups, and given the key uncertainties extracted from the distributed questionnaires among 25 security, scientific and diplomatic experts, four scenarios: 1) Worst: Ensuring China's energy security; 2) The best: the occurrence of economic and trade war between China and the United States; 3) Continuation of current trends: no trade and economic war between China and the United States; 4) China's inability to ensure energy security, which in accordance with the scenarios and in detail in addition to the indicators of the occurrence of scenarios, strategic recommendations, policies and strategies to manage each.
Keywords
Futures Studies
Indo-Pacific
Scenario Writing
Strategic Approach
GBN

Subjects

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