International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

Transition in the Middle East Regional Order; From Hegemonic Order to Regional Coalition Building

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Amin Moeini 1
Hamid Ahmadi 2
1 Ph. D. in Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, hahmadi
10.22034/fr.2023.345000.1252
Abstract
The research is based on the premise that the regional order of the Middle East is transitioning from a hegemonic order to a complex and uncertain situation and it tries to rely on the tools of "trend study"and research in security campaigns at the national, regional and international to predict the future order of the Middle East. Therefore, while explaining the current transition situation, it answers the question of what indicators and signs will the future order of the Middle East follow and what is the ruling model? Based on the hypothesis of the research, the change in the regional order patterns of the Middle East is taking place gradually and with a process nature. National, regional and international trends indicate the reduction of direct intervention of great powers and the strengthening of regional alliances in the future of Middle East conflicts. The main drivers of this development are the transformation of the logic of coalition building in the Middle East, the redefinition of patterns of regional interaction and confrontation, the weakness of the Arabs' traditional balancing act towards Iran, and the common understanding of the threat from the regional role of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Based on the findings of the research, parallel to the process of peace building in Hebrew-Arab relations, Iran will become one of the main axes of confrontation in the future of the Middle East.
Keywords
Regional order
Middle East
hegemonic order
coalition building
trend study
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