International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

Challenges facing Afghanistan under the leadership of the Taliban and its future scenarios

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 PhD Student of International Relations, Department of Political Science, Shahreza Islamic Azad University, Shahreza, Iran.
2 Corresponding Author, Department of Political Science, Shahreza Islamic Azad University, Shahreza, Iran.
3 Department of Political Science, Shahreza Islamic Azad University, Shahreza, Iran.
Abstract
Since the fall of Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, to the hands of the Taliban in August 2021, Afghanistan has become a major source of concern for countries in the region and for the international community in general, especially as the country suffers from three main challenges: A person who has caused socio-economic unrest. The growing threat of terrorism originating from Afghanistan due to the inability of the Taliban movement to contain the terrorist groups present in Afghanistan, as well as the refusal of this movement to cooperate regionally or internationally to deal with this threat, the Taliban's refusal to accept the political participation of other ethnic minorities, legitimacy The regime questions this movement for the people of Afghanistan and the international community, and as a result increases the possibility of political and security unrest in the country. In such a situation, the question arises, what will be the future of Afghanistan's political and security life under the leadership of the Taliban? In response, it can be said that according to the existing challenges, three scenarios of "coup within the movement", "the fall of Kabul under the rule of "Islamic Government Organization - Khorasan Province", "the emergence of a parallel government with the revival of the Northern Alliance" can be imagined for the future of Afghanistan. . The research method is qualitative and prospective.
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