International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

Constructing Strategic Scenarios for Energy Resource Exchanges in the Persian Gulf Following the Russia-Ukraine War Crisis: A Futuristic Research Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ali Basiriniya 1
Abdersoul Hasani Far 2
Yones Latifian 3
1 Assistant Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
3 MA Student of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
10.22034/fr.2024.416708.1439
Abstract
The recent Russia-Ukraine military crisis has precipitated profound transformations and fundamental shifts in international paradigms of energy supply and exchange. Leveraging its strategic dominance and pressure leverage in oil and gas, Russia has posed significant impediments and challenges for Western nations. Amidst this, the strategic significance of the Persian Gulf region as one of the largest and most vital sources of energy supply for Western powers has become further accentuated and highlighted.The central research question examines how exchange structures and patterns pertaining to energy resources within the geopolitically salient Persian Gulf region are anticipated to evolve given the tumult of the Ukraine crisis. The methodological framework encompassed qualitative, quantitative, and futures research approaches. In-depth expert interviews with 10 specialists across regional studies, international relations, and energy economics constituted the qualitative component. Key variables were then identified via thematic analysis and categorization. Structural equation modeling (MICMAC) was further utilized to decipher inter-variable relationships. Finally, grounded in futures research principles, 5 probable scenarios across different key variable states were designed and formulated based on the findings of the preceding phases. Findings indicate that modernization and expansion endeavors within the region’s oil and gas industry capacities, coupled with an elevated Iranian role, can positively impact European energy markets.
Keywords
Energy Exchange
Russia-Ukraine War
Persian Gulf
Scenario Development
Futuristic Studies
Subjects
  • Asker, J., Collard-Wexler, A., & De Loecker, J. (2017). Market Power, Production (Mis) Allocation and OPEC (No. w23801). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Blondeel, M., Bradshaw, M. J., Bridge, G., & Kuzemko, C. (2021). The Geopolitics of Energy System Transformation: A Review. Geography Compass, 15(7), 1-22. doi: 10.1111/gec3.12580.
  • Bruns, A. (2012). Reconciling Community and Commerce? Collaboration between Produsage Communities and Commercial Operators. Information, Communication & Society, 15(6), 815-835.
  • Campos, A., & Fernandes, C. P. (2017). The Geopolitics of Energy. In C. P. Fernandes & T. F. Rodrigues (Eds.). Geopolitics of Energy and Energy Security (pp. 23-40). Lisboa: Instituto da Defesa Nacional.
  • Cesnakas, G. (2010). Energy Resources in Foreign Policy: A Theoretical Approach. Baltic Journal of Law & Politics, 3(1), 30-52. doi:10.2478/v10076-010-0003-y.
  • Chronas V. & Hanelt, C. (2022). The EU and the Middle East: Exploring alternatives to Russian Energy. Global Europe. 15 March. Available at: https://globaleurope.eu/globalization/the-eu-and-the-middle-east-exploring-alternatives-to-russian-energy.
  • Creswell, J. W. (2014). A Concise Introduction to Mixed Methods Research. London: SAGE publications.
  • Dannreuther, R. (2013). Geopolitics and International Relations of Resources. In: R. Dannreuther & W. Ostrowski (Eds). Global Resources (pp. 79-97). London: Palgrave Macmillan. doi: 10.1057/9781137349149_5.
  • Daojiong, Z. (2006). Energy Interdependence. China Security, 1(3): 2-16.
  • Denegri‐Knott, J., Zwick, D., & Schroeder, J. E. (2006). Mapping Consumer Power: an Integrative Framework for Marketing and Consumer Research. European Journal of Marketing, 40(9/10), 950-971.
  • EIA (2020a). "U.S. Net Imports from Persian Gulf Countries of Crude Oil", U.S. Energy Information Administration, Available at: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUSPG2 &f=M, Accessed on: 3 January 2024.
  • EIA (2020b). "U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil", U.S. Energy Information Administration, Available at: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUS2&f= A, Accessed on: 30 February 2020.
  • Farrell, A. E., Zerriffi, H., & Dowlatabadi, H. (2004). Energy Infrastructure and Security. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 29, 421-469.
  • Favennec, J. P. (2011). The Geopolitics of Energy. Paris: Editions Technip.
  • Hughes, L., & Long, A. (2015). Is There an Oil Weapon?: Security Implications of Changes in the Structure of the International Oil Market. International Security, 39(3), 152–189. doi: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00188.
  • Huppmann, D., & Egging, R. (2014). Market Power, Fuel Substitution and Infrastructure–A large-Scale Equilibrium Model of Global Energy Markets. Energy, 75, 483-500.
  • Momayezi, N., & Rosenburg, R. B. (2023). Geopolitics of Oil in the Middle East and Its Implications for U.S. National Security. In M. C. Escolar-Llamazares (Ed.). Recent Trends in Arts and Social Studies (pp. 9-21). doi: 10.9734/bpi/rtass/v9/10778f.
  • Moran, D., & Russell, J. A. (2008). Energy Security and Global Politics: The Militarization of Resource Management. London: Routledge.
  • Pascual, C., & Zambetakis, E. (2010). The Geopolitics of Energy. In C. Pascual & J. Elkind (Eds.). Energy Security: Economics, Politics, Strategies, and Implications (pp. 9-35). New York: Brookings Institution Press.
  • Shaffer, B. (2011). Energy Politics. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
  • Stegen, K. S., Kusznir, J., & Riederer, C. (2023). The Geopolitics of Energy Transportation and Carriers: from Fossil Fuels to Electricity and Hydrogen. In Handbook on the Geopolitics of the Energy Transition (pp. 141-157). Northampton: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Steven, D., O'Brien, E., & Jones, B. D. (2014). The New Politics of Strategic Resources: Energy and Food Security Challenges in the 21st Century. Washington: Brookings Institution Press.
  • Stulberg, A. N. (2007). Well-oiled Diplomacy: Strategic Manipulation and Russia's Energy Statecraft in Eurasia. New York: SUNY Press.
  • Verrastro, F., Ladislaw, S., Frank, M., Hyland, L. A., & Schlesinger, J. R. (2010). The Geopolitics of Energy. Emerging Trends, Changing Landscapes, Uncertain Times. CSIS Energy and National Security Program. Available at: chrome-extension://mhnlakgilnojmhinhkckjpncpbhabphi/pages/pdf/web/viewer.html?file=https%3A%2F%2Fcsis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fs3fs-public%2Flegacy_files%2Ffiles%2Fpublication%2F101026_Verrastro_Geopolitics_web.pdf.
  • Wilson, J. D. (2015). Resource Powers? Minerals, Energy and the Rise of the BRICS. Third World Quarterly, 36(2), 223–239. doi: 10.1080/01436597.2015.1013318.