International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

Turbulent Regional Dynamics and the Return of Donald Trump: Strategic Options for Iran in the Future Geopolitical Landscape of West Asia

Document Type : Original Article

Author
farshid farhadi
Research Fellow, Department of Regional Studies, Imam Hossein Comprehensive University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/fr.2025.499967.1626
Abstract
The United States' withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and the initiation of the "maximum pressure" campaign by the Trump administration marked a critical turning point in the geopolitical confrontation with Iran. This strategy aimed to weaken Iran’s deterrence and change its regional behavior through a framework of direct and proxy threats. In response, Iran sought to maintain the deterrence balance and prevent full-scale war by relying on asymmetric warfare. Consequently, the two countries entered a state of “deterrence at the boiling point”—a precarious situation where the constant threat of war was tempered by deterrence-based calculations.
With the Biden administration's arrival, signs of diplomacy emerged, but pressure on Iran continued, leading to interactions that can be characterized as "gray diplomacy."
Recent developments, such as the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel, the attack on the Iranian consulate, and Tehran’s military response, have propelled the region into a phase of “active instability.” Targeted assassinations and localized clashes have further heightened tensions. Now, with the fall of Damascus and the possible return of Donald Trump in 2025, the region has entered a new stage defined by a “power vacuum” and strategic uncertainty. This situation raises crucial questions about potential future scenarios concerning Iran—ranging from the continuation of pressure to multilayered containment.
Given the ongoing deterrence at a geopolitical boiling point and the prospect of Donald Trump's return to power in the United States, what plausible scenarios might arise in Washington's approach toward Iran? Should we expect a continuation of coercive geopolitics, a refinement of diplomacy within a gray zone environment, or a shift toward multilayered containment through a blend of symmetric and asymmetric threats? This research is exploratory and does not present any hypotheses or preliminary conjectures. It adopts a futuristic approach by employing the Global Business Network (GBN) technique to develop scenarios related to the research topic and address the research questions.
The study employs the GBN technique to model the future landscape through the interplay of seven geopolitical drivers and fourteen strategic uncertainties. The combination of these elements resulted in 128 potential scenarios. Among them, 102 scenarios were deemed internally inconsistent. For example, a scenario in which former President Trump simultaneously pursues a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities while successful negotiations are underway is logically incoherent and implausible.
In contrast, 26 scenarios exhibited internal consistency. However, in line with Trump's publicly stated policy regarding Iran's nuclear program—often framed as a binary choice between “deal or bombardment”—two scenarios emerged as analytically significant: (1) the Zero-Sum Game: Return to the Gamble of Deterrence and (2) the Multi-Level Game: Deception Behind the Smile. In the Zero-Sum Game scenario, negotiations between Iran and the United States ultimately fail, resulting in Trump choosing to launch a military strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Conversely, the Multi-Level Game scenario envisions a successful diplomatic outcome, where both countries de-escalate tensions and avoid direct military confrontation.
Upon analyzing both scenarios, the Multi-Level Game was identified as the Nash equilibrium of the strategic interaction. Despite the ongoing availability of military options, the escalating costs for both primary actors make this approach increasingly irrational, thereby favoring a non-zero-sum outcome based on compromise.
However, Israel, acting as a third-party disruptor, could potentially disturb this balance by providing misleading intelligence to U.S. decision-makers. Such interference may lead the United States toward a riskier path, reviving the Zero-Sum Game dynamics and undermining the equilibrium.

Highlights

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Keywords
Donald Trump
Iran
Nuclear program
JCPOA
Subjects
  • Andersson, G. (1973). Methods in futures studies: A view from the theory of science. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 5(3).
  • Aishah, N. H. (2020). The power of AIPAC (American-Israel Public Affairs Committee) and U.S.-Israel special relationship: Future of the Palestinian state in the Middle East. Partridge Publishing Singapore.
  • (2025, April 16). Trump team's Iran divide: Dialogue vs. detonation to end nuclear threat. Retrieved from https://www.axios.com/2025/04/16/trump-iran-nuclear-policy-vance-rubio
  • Azizi, A. (2020). The Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the US, and Iran's global ambitions. Oneworld Publications.
  • Bandow, D. (2025). Donald Trump’s dream: Taking over Panama, Canada and Greenland is nonsense. CATO Institute.
  • Bell, W. (1996). The sociology of the future and the future of sociology. Sociological Perspectives, 39(1), 39-57.
  • Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of futures studies Volume 1: History, purposes, and knowledge. Routledge.
  • Bishop, P. C., & Hines, A. (2007). Thinking about the future: Guidelines for strategic foresight. Social Technologies.
  • Bishop, P. C., & Hines, A. (2012). Teaching about the future. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Bryman, D. (2024). 5 questions about the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah. Foreign Policy.
  • Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: How to create, use, and assess scenarios. Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
  • Chetcuti, L. (2024). Trump's inner circle: Insights into his second term. Institut Montaigne.
  • Chivvis, C. S., et al. (2024). Strategic change in U.S. foreign policy. Carnegie.
  • Cohen, R. S. (2024). Israel-Hamas war: Insights from RAND Corporation.
  • Congressional Research Service, & Katzman, K. (2020). Iran sanctions. Independently published.
  • Cotta-Ramusino, P., et al. (2022). Nuclear risks and arms control - problems and progresses in the time of pandemics and war. Springer.
  • Douville, A. J. (2009). Beyond the water's edge: The role of ex-presidents in U.S. foreign policy. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, 10(1), 55-62.
  • Dyson, S. B. (2009). The Blair identity: Leadership and foreign policy. Princeton University Press.
  • Davenport, Kelsey. (2025). Trump Touts Progress on Iran Nuclear Deal, Arms Control Association, Retrieved from: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-06/news/trump-touts-progress-iran-nuclear-deal
  • Fortunato, L., Sarmiento, A., & Radaelli, C. M. (2018). The psychology of authoritarian leaders. Political Psychology, 39(1).
  • Gidley, J. (2017). The future: A very short introduction (Very Short Introductions). Oxford University Press.
  • Gilbert, B. E., & Moen, L. J. K. (2024). The personality of a personality cult? Personality characteristics of Donald Trump's most loyal supporters. Political Psychology, 1–19.
  • Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (2003). Futures research methodology (v2.0). American Council for the UNU.
  • Hamzawy, A. (2024). The Middle East’s new war of attrition. Carnegie.
  • Heike, Paul. (2019). Critical terms in futures studies. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Herrmann, R. K. (2003). Perceptions and image theory in international relations. Journal of Political Psychology, 24(4).
  • Hester, R. (2021). Historical research: Theory and methods. Ed-Tech Press.
  • Hiltunen, E. (2008). The future sign and its three dimensions. Futures, 40(3).
  • Immelman, A., & Griebie, A. M. (2020). The personality profile and leadership style of U.S. President Donald J. Trump in office. Psychology Faculty Press.
  • Inayatullah, S. (2013). Futures studies: Theories and methods. BBVA Group Press.
  • Javits, J. K. (1970). The congressional presence in foreign relations. Foreign Affairs, 48(2), 221-234.
  • Kerr, P. K., et al. (2021). Possible U.S. return to Iran nuclear agreement: Frequently asked questions. Congressional Research Service.
  • Kimball, D. J. (2022). Trump’s Failed Iran Policy. Arms Control Today.
  • Lindgren, M., & Bandhold, H. (2003). Scenario planning: The link between future and strategy. Springer.
  • Lindsay, J. M. (2023). Transition 2025: What Will Donald Trump Do About Iran?. Council on Foreign Relations.
  • Martelli, A. (2014). Models of scenario building and planning: Facing uncertainty and complexity (Bocconi on Management). Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Matsumi, H., & Solove, D. J. (2023). The prediction society: AI and the problems of forecasting the future. GWU Legal Studies Research Paper No. 2023-58.
  • Masters, J. (2017). U.S. foreign policy powers: Congress and the president. Council on Foreign Relations.
  • McAdams, D. P. (2021). The strange case of Donald J. Trump: A psychological reckoning. Oxford University Press.
  • Masoudnia, H., et al. (2021). Analysis of Factors Influencing Trump's Foreign Policy Toward Iran. Iranian Journal of Political Studies, Volume 20, Issue 4, pp.219-244.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J., & Walt, S. M. (2008). The Israel lobby and U.S. foreign policy. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
  • Nazareth, K. (2021). Trump's Policy Toward Iran. The Journal of International Issues
  • 23, No. 2 , pp. 22-35.
  • Nai, A., et al. (2019). Donald Trump, populism, and the age of extremes: Comparing the personality traits and campaigning styles of Trump and other leaders worldwide. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 49(3), 609–643.
  • Omidi, A. (2020). Maximum Pressure and Trump's Diplomacy. Strategic Studies Quarterly.
  • Petersen, J. (1999). Out of the blue: How to anticipate big future surprises (as referenced in Hiltunen, Elina, Was it wild card or just our blindness to gradual change?). Journal of Futures Studies, 11(2), 61–74.
  • Poli, R. (2024). Handbook of futures studies. Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Reisinezhad, A. (2024). Iran’s Israel strategy has already changed. Foreign Policy.
  • (2025, May 15). Trump says US close to a nuclear deal with Iran. Retrieved from:
  • https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-us-is-getting-very-close-nuclear-deal-with-iran-2025-05-15
  • Robinson, K. (2023). What is the Iran nuclear deal? Council on Foreign Relations.
  • Rohrbeck, R. (2011). Corporate foresight: Towards a maturity model for the future orientation of a firm. Springer.
  • Sardar, Z. (2014). Future: All that matters. McGraw-Hill Education.
  • Schwartz, P. (1991). Art of the long view. Doubleday Business.
  • Sherman, W. R. (2018). How we got the Iran deal: And why we'll miss it. Foreign Affairs, 97(5), 186-197.
  • Sims, C. (2019). Team of vipers: My 500 extraordinary days in the Trump White House. Thomas Dunne Books.
  • Slaughter, R. (1996). New thinking for a new millennium: The knowledge base of futures studies. Routledge.
  • Slaughter, R., & Hines, A. (2020). The knowledge base of futures studies. Association of Professional Futurists.
  • Smeltz, D., et al. (2023). How partisan is US foreign policy? US politics, public opinion, and global implications. Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
  • Telhami, Shibley. (2025). Trump made clear he wants a deal with Iran. Most Americans agree, Brookings Institution, Retrieved from: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-made-clear-he-wants-a-deal-with-iran-most-americans-agree/
  • Winter, D. G. (2010). Political psychology and political leadership. Annual Review of Psychology, 61.
  • Zanotti, J., & Sharp, J. M. (2024). Israel and Hamas conflict in brief: Overview, U.S. policy, and options for Congress. Congressional Research Service.