International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

Implications of a Potential Russian Victory in the Ukraine War for Eurasia and Iran: A Critical Scenario-Based Analysis

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Parviz Dalirpoor 1
Mohsen Nasresfahani 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Education, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/fr.2025.544794.1705
Abstract
The Ukrainian conflict, as one of the decisive geopolitical developments of the last decade, has far-reaching consequences on the security, economic, and institutional architecture of Eurasia. The main issue of this research is to examine the effects of Russia's possible victory in this war on regional structures and the position of middle powers, especially Iran. The aim of the study is to analyze possible future paths and assess the opportunities and threats arising from it for Iran's foreign policy. The research method is a qualitative-analytical scenario writing that, using the framework of scenario theory and within the framework of neorealism and complex interdependence approaches, key variables and crisis-causing factors were identified and four distinct scenarios were drawn: "Expansion of Russian hegemony and isolation of the West", "Structural confrontation and multipolar game", "Russia-China convergence and the path to Central Asia's liberation", and "Sudden fall and collapse of central control". The findings indicate that the first two scenarios will have the highest probability of realization, since they are consistent with the logic of power and the mutual reaction of the main actors; The third scenario is conceivable as a complementary trend in the context of continued Western pressure on Moscow, and the fourth scenario, although unlikely, has the greatest destabilizing potential. The results of the study indicate that the common consequences of all scenarios include the reconfiguration of the Eurasian security architecture, the redefinition of energy and transit routes, and the enhancement of the role of middle powers. From a policy perspective, it is suggested that the West should focus on maintaining deterrence and reducing energy dependence on Russia; China should manage cooperation with Moscow by respecting the sovereignty of host countries and diversifying trade routes; and Iran should adopt a smart balancing strategy to preserve its strategic independence by taking advantage of transit opportunities and economic diplomacy.

Extended Abstract
Introduction
Eurasia occupies a unique geopolitical position as the connective tissue between Europe and Asia, encompassing diverse political systems, economic networks, and security arrangements. Russia’s role has historically been decisive, both as a regional hegemon and as a counterweight to Western influence. The ongoing war in Ukraine has become a defining moment for Eurasia’s future, with the potential to reshape the region’s security architecture, economic corridors, and institutional frameworks.
This study examines the hypothetical scenario of a Russian victory in Ukraine—defined as Moscow achieving its core strategic objectives, consolidating territorial gains, and securing recognition or de facto acceptance of its expanded sphere of influence. Using scenario theory, the research identifies and evaluates plausible future pathways for Eurasia and their implications for regional actors, including Iran.
Research Question
What are the likely security, economic, and institutional consequences of a potential Russian victory in Ukraine for Eurasia, and how might these outcomes reshape the balance of power, governance structures, and the strategic opportunities and risks for middle powers such as Iran?
Hypothesis
A Russian victory would reconfigure Eurasia’s strategic landscape, leading to:
A shift toward a more multipolar order with Russia as a central security guarantor.
A redefinition of energy and transit routes, enhancing Moscow’s leverage.
The emergence of new institutional alignments that weaken Western influence while amplifying the role of middle powers such as Iran, Turkey, and Kazakhstan.
The trajectory of these changes would depend on Russia’s strategic choices, the responses of China and the West, and the agency of smaller Eurasian states.
Methodology and Theoretical Framework
The research employs a qualitative–analytical scenario building method:
Identifying key variables and uncertainties through scholarly and policy sources.
Mapping drivers of change in security, economic, and institutional domains.
Constructing four scenarios using scenario theory, which emphasizes the interaction of predetermined trends and high-impact uncertainties.
The theoretical foundation combines Scenario Theory with Neorealism (to explain state behavior under shifting power distributions) and Complex Interdependence Theory (to account for economic and institutional linkages).
Results and discussion
Scenario 1: Expansion of Russian Hegemony and Western Isolation
A decisive Russian victory consolidates Moscow’s influence over Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Sanctions persist but fail to reverse gains.
Security: Strengthening of CSTO and bilateral defense agreements.
Economics: Energy exports reoriented toward Asia; Russia controls key transit chokepoints.
Institutions: Marginalization of Western-led initiatives; rise of Russia-centric forums.
Implications for Iran: Iran could benefit from expanded transit corridors such as the North–South Corridor, increased energy cooperation, and participation in Russia-led institutions. Yet overdependence on Moscow risks limiting Tehran’s strategic flexibility.
Scenario 2: Structural Confrontation and Multipolar Game
Russia’s victory entrenches a long-term standoff with the West, producing a multipolar arena where Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, and the EU compete.
Security: Militarization of borders; localized conflicts as tools of influence.
Economics: Diversification of trade and energy routes to avoid overdependence.
Institutions: Fragmented governance with overlapping frameworks.
Implications for Iran: This scenario offers Tehran opportunities to act as a balancing actor, leveraging its geography to mediate between blocs. However, intensified competition could also heighten regional instability, particularly in the Caucasus.
Scenario 3: Russia–China Convergence and Central Asia’s Path to Autonomy
Sustained Western pressure pushes Russia into deeper alignment with China. Central Asian states exploit this to negotiate greater autonomy.
Security: Joint Russia–China security initiatives in Central Asia.
Economics: Integration of EAEU with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Institutions: Hybrid governance blending Russian and Chinese norms.
Implications for Iran: Tehran could integrate more deeply into BRI-linked projects, enhancing its role as a transit hub. Yet the dominance of Sino-Russian frameworks may constrain Iran’s autonomy and reduce its bargaining power.
Scenario 4: Sudden Collapse and Breakdown of Centralized Control
The least likely but most destabilizing scenario involves internal crises in Russia after victory, leading to fragmentation of authority.
Security: Weakening of Russian commitments abroad; power vacuums.
Economics: Disruption of energy supplies and transit routes.
Institutions: Collapse of Russia-led regional bodies.
Implications for Iran: While instability could open space for Iran to expand influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia, it would also generate severe security risks along its northern borders and disrupt trade and energy flows.
Comparative Assessment of Scenarios
Scenarios 1 and 2 are the most probable, aligning with the logic of power politics and reciprocal reactions of major actors. Scenario 3 is plausible as a nested trend, especially if sanctions persist and Sino-Russian cooperation deepens. Scenario 4, though unlikely, carries the highest destabilizing potential.
Common consequences across all scenarios include:
Transformation of Eurasia’s Security Architecture: Alliances and defense postures recalibrated.
Redefinition of Energy and Transit Routes: Pipelines, railways, and ports become central levers of influence.
Rising Role of Middle Powers: Iran, Turkey, and Kazakhstan gain importance as connectors, mediators, or alternative hubs.
The divergence lies fundamentally in direction and systemic impact: Scenario 1 consolidates Russian dominance, reinforcing hierarchical order under Moscow’s leadership; Scenario 2 diffuses power into a competitive multipolar arena; Scenario 3 embeds Russia within a Sino‑centric framework that limits its autonomy; and Scenario 4 produces instability, fragmentation, and unpredictable vacuums of authority across Eurasia. Each trajectory reshapes security alignments, economic corridors, and institutional legitimacy in distinct ways, thereby redefining the strategic environment for regional middle powers such as Iran.
Conclusion
A Russian victory in Ukraine would not produce a single predetermined outcome but rather a spectrum of futures shaped by power politics, economic interdependence, and institutional adaptation. The most plausible trajectories—Russian hegemony or multipolar competition—would both entail profound shifts in security alignments, global economic flows, and governance structures, reshaping the balance of influence across Eurasia and beyond.
For Iran, each scenario carries both opportunities and risks. Tehran could strengthen its role as a strategic transit hub, expand energy diplomacy, deepen regional connectivity, and position itself as a balancing actor in a fragmented order. Yet the dangers of overdependence on Russia and China, heightened exposure to regional instability, and the erosion of strategic autonomy remain pressing challenges that could constrain long‑term flexibility.
Policy Implications
For the West: Maintain deterrence and cohesion, reduce energy dependence on Russia, and invest in alternative connectivity projects.
For China: Manage cooperation with Russia, respect host country sovereignty, and diversify trade routes.
For Iran: Capitalize on transit opportunities, strengthen economic diplomacy, and pursue smart balancing to avoid overreliance on any single bloc while safeguarding sovereignty.
Keywords
Russia
Ukraine
Eurasia
Iran
world order
scenarios
Subjects
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