The year 2025 has been profoundly influenced by Donald Trump's reelection victory, confronting the international system with a new chapter in relations and patterns of alliances and enmities. The 12-day war waged by Israel and the United States against Iran marked a new phase in the regional order with global ramifications, minimizing the prospects for achieving a nuclear agreement more than ever before. In this context, the following question has been evaluated: Considering the 12-day war, how can the foreign policy and strategy of the United States toward Iran—particularly with emphasis on the nuclear program—be characterized, and what are the relevant scenarios and reactions (With an emphasis on the 2025-2026 timeframe? In response, the proposed hypothesis posits that the Trump administration's policy toward Iran is based on a hybrid approach grounded in two principles: offensive realism, extreme nationalism, and it appears unlikely to undergo further revision without achieving a significant breakthrough. The theoretical foundations of the research are based the theory “peace through strength, and the methodology for explicating the logic of the hybrid "maximum pressure" strategy includes analysis of historical trends and multilayered scenario planning. The findings indicate that Trump's approach is a peace through strength, based on predicated on structural sanctions, indirect military pressure, and tactical crisis management. Furthermore, based on the proposed potential scenarios, in the event of sustained tensions, the option of crisis escalation within the framework of geopolitical competition in West Asia is highly probable, and the preemptive military operation scenario, along with the hybrid scenario (limited warfare, sanctions, conditional diplomacy, and support for internal opponents), can be posited as key strategies.
Keywords: Foreign policy, United States, Iran, Trump, Nuclear issue, 12-day war.
Extended Abstract
Introduction and Objectives
The current era in the global system should be regarded as the age of the "liberal international order" and the "return of nationalist powers," the overall outcome of which has been the United States' withdrawal from international agreements, pressure on Iran, and the reactions of Europe and China to Trump's policies. Examining the transformation of the global order following Trump's return indicates the decline of liberal hegemony and the emergence of nationalist powers on a global scale in a novel form. In this context, the rise of the Trump administration, the war involving attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran, on one hand, and the United States government's conviction regarding the rise of authoritarian states (Iran, Russia, and China), on the other, heightens the need for scrutiny of the foundations of Trump's American foreign policy. Accordingly, this text aims to examine the foreign policy of the Trump administration during its second presidential term, particularly after the 12-day war, along with potential scenarios and Iran's responses in this regard. The necessity for the country to prepare for any conditions constitutes one of the evident essentials of the forthcoming research.
Methodology
The present research possesses a theoretical and theoretical-applied nature, which examines the topic based on trend analysis in futures studies. Drawing on this method and with reference to the theory of peace through strength—which has roots in American foreign policy schools—it enumerates six potential scenarios for the second Trump administration. On the other hand, and in light of the U.S. government's scenarios, six scenarios for Iran's reactions are also derived.
Findings
In accordance with the futures-oriented methodology, the scenarios for the Trump administration's confrontation with Iran can be identified within the set of definitive and inevitable change trends (hard core), dominant trends with high probability of realization and uncertainty (middle shell), and trends of sudden transformations or alternative scenarios (outer shell). Under these layers of change, six scenarios are derived, including: 1- The "maximum pressure" scenario; 2- Negotiation and flexible deterrence; 3- Preemptive military action and Support for internal forces and centrifugal movements within Iran; 4- Regional cooperation and the formation of multilateral coalitions; 5- A hybrid approach. Although each of the proposed scenarios carries its own specific challenges and risks, the adoption of a multifaceted and hybrid approach—in which economic, diplomatic, and military tools are utilized in a coordinated manner—represents the most probable option for U.S. foreign policy toward Iran during the second Trump administration.
Accordingly, Iran's reactions to these scenarios are also categorized into six groups, aligned with the same tripartite division of hard core, middle shell, and outer shell. Iran's reactions include: 1- Active resistance and strengthening conventional military deterrence; 2- Inclination toward negotiation and flexible deterrence; 3- Military-strategic action (response to limited attack) and coalition-building in this regard 4- Regional and international coalition-building; 5- Movement toward nuclear weapons – maximum deterrence strategy; 6- Hybrid.
Conclusion
The foreign policy of the Trump administration serves as a reflection of the "peace through strength" theory, as a realist approach grounded in Jacksonian principles, which emphasizes the revival of hardware-based deterrence traditions at the international level. Trump's "maximum pressure" policies—through withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear agreement, the 12-day war, and the imposition of unilateral sanctions—have not only impacted Iran's economic and military capabilities but have also redefined the United States' position in the international system as a superpower. Based on the proposed potential scenarios, in the event of continued tensions following the 12-day war, the option of crisis escalation and the likelihood of sustained limited wars within the framework of geopolitical competition in West Asia is highly probable. The preemptive military operation scenario (with low probability but high consequences) and the hybrid scenario (sanctions, conditional diplomacy, and support for internal opponents)—despite complexities and unpredictable reactions—can be posited as key strategies.