International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

Artificial Intelligence and the Transformation of Global Geopolitics: Opportunities and Challenges

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ebrahim Ahmadi 1
Hamidreza Mohammadi 2
1 Ph.D. in Political Geography, Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Political Geography, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/fr.2026.523721.1664
Abstract
Since its inception, geopolitics has gone through four main stages: traditional, classical, modern, and postmodern geopolitics. Each of these periods has been a reflection of the historical, technological, and political developments of its era. Today, with the emergence of artificial intelligence as a supertechnology within the framework of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, we can speak of entering the fifth stage of geopolitical transformation. This new stage has overshadowed all aspects of human life and has left profound effects on power, security, economics, and international relations. This analytical-descriptive research, by examining reliable library sources and international documents, shows that artificial intelligence has transformed from a tool into a key factor in redefining the nature of geopolitics and global power equations. In fact, AI has profoundly transformed geopolitics and the international balance of power by transforming the structure of power, security, and governance. Although this technology has provided opportunities such as improved governance, enhanced transnational cooperation, and economic growth, it has also exacerbated challenges such as the digital divide, emerging security threats, and ethical-legal dilemmas. Finally, this article offers practical solutions aimed at globally managing the impacts of AI on the geopolitical system and international relations, as well as reducing the technological gap between developed and developing countries.

Extended Abstract
In recent years, the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and its profound impacts on various dimensions of human life have captured the attention of researchers and scholars across diverse scientific fields. While numerous studies have examined the political, security, economic, and cultural dimensions of AI, few have analyzed the effects of this technology on the nature of geopolitics, its structures, and global geopolitical transformations from a specialized geopolitical perspective.
This study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach, relying on a library-documentary research method, to investigate the fundamental impacts of artificial intelligence on the nature, structure, and processes of global geopolitics. The findings indicate that AI, as the beating heart of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, is steering geopolitics toward a fifth stage, termed "smart geopolitics." This historical transition is occurring through four key transformations, each deeply redefining the traditional international order: the mechanization and Algorithmization of governance processes, the decentralization and networking of power structures, the emergence of dataism as a new dominant paradigm, and the transformation of the very nature of power from overt and physical to covert and informational. These structural shifts have, at the operational level, simultaneously ushered in a wave of complex and intertwined opportunities and threats for the international system.
In the realm of opportunities, AI holds unprecedented potential for enhancing governance efficiency and transparency through process automation, real-time big data analytics, and the delivery of personalized services to citizens. This can make the policy cycle more agile and responsive. On the international front, by providing advanced analytical tools, this technology enables the strengthening of transnational cooperation to address shared global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and terrorism. In the social sphere, AI facilitates greater democratic access to information and knowledge and provides new platforms for expression and participation, thereby contributing to societal empowerment and the reinforcement of civic activism. From an economic standpoint, by boosting productivity, creating entirely new industries, and transforming business models, AI serves as a global engine for economic growth and innovation, promising the creation of broader wealth and welfare.
However, in the domain of threats and challenges, the picture is equally, if not more, concerning. In the realms of national and international security, artificial intelligence places unprecedented offensive tools at the disposal of both state and non-state actors. This includes sophisticated cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure, the development and use of lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS), and extensive information warfare and public opinion manipulation operations through the production and dissemination of fake news and digital influence campaigns.
From an economic perspective, artificial intelligence has the potential to dangerously exacerbate the global competitive divide. Countries with robust digital infrastructure, specialized human capital, and substantial investment in research and development (such as the United States and China) can accumulate the greatest benefits, while nations lacking these advantages face the risk of permanent economic and technological marginalization and a deepening digital divide. Furthermore, this technology, by accelerating the automation and replacement of jobs across a wide range of sectors, could lead to labor market instability, increased income inequality, and social tensions.
In the political and social sphere, the analytical and predictive power of artificial intelligence can be employed by authoritarian regimes for comprehensive and repressive surveillance, targeted censorship, and population control. In democracies, there is also the potential for undermining democratic foundations through micro-targeting and sophisticated manipulation of voter preferences. Ethical and legal challenges remain vast and unresolved. Industrial-scale privacy violations, systemic bias and institutionalized discrimination within algorithms, a lack of transparency and accountability in automated decision-making (the black box conundrum), and the absence of comprehensive international legal frameworks for accountability are among these fundamental problems. Finally, the concentration of technological power in the hands of a few giant transnational corporations and several states has emerged as an independent geopolitical threat, capable of limiting the digital sovereignty of other countries and creating new patterns of dependency.
To manage these complex geopolitical shifts and steer them in a direction that serves the interests of all humanity, a set of multi-level operational solutions is proposed. At the global governance level, it is imperative to establish an international regulatory body under the United Nations to set common ethical and security standards and oversee AI development, and to adopt treaties limiting its offensive-military applications. To reduce the technological gap, establishing a global AI development fund and facilitating the transfer of foundational technologies to developing countries under the supervision of bodies such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is essential. At the regional level, forming technological alliances and collaborations, particularly in the form of South-South cooperation and within frameworks like the Non-Aligned Movement, can facilitate knowledge sharing, the development of appropriate governance frameworks, and increase the collective bargaining power of developing countries. Complementarily, promoting inclusive digital governance models that possess the necessary flexibility to adapt to cultural values and national development needs, encouraging private sector investment in local ecosystems, and establishing networks for exchanging best governance practices are other key measures.
A final analysis of these findings reveals that artificial intelligence is becoming a central axis in the realignment of the global balance of power. This technology has not only transformed the instruments of power but has itself become a primary arena of geopolitical competition. The future of the international order will depend heavily on the global community's ability to manage this inherent duality—as both an engine of progress and a source of instability. Overcoming the challenges and harnessing the opportunities necessitates the creation of new, multilateral, and equitable governance frameworks at national, regional, and global levels. These frameworks must be capable of guaranteeing security and stability, protecting privacy and human rights, reducing the digital divide through cooperation and technology transfer, and promoting responsible innovation. Without collective resolve and cooperation, artificial intelligence could become a factor exacerbating inequality, instability, and the further polarization of global geopolitics. Conversely, if guided wisely, foresightedly, and with a firm prioritization of the common interests of humanity, it can provide an unparalleled platform for enhancing cooperation, achieving sustainable development, and shaping a fairer and more inclusive order in the digital age.
Keywords
Geopolitics'
artificial intelligence'
geopolitical developments'
digital governance'
,'
international relations
Subjects
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