International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

Hydropolitical Self-Organization: A Dynamic Approach to Iran's Water Diplomacy in Patterns of Interaction and Conflict -A Case Study of the Transboundary Aras River Basin

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran – Iran.
2 Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Khwarazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/fr.2026.485396.1594
Abstract
Given the increasing complexity of hydropolitical interactions in shared and transboundary watersheds, water issues have become increasingly significant in Iran’s relations with the countries surrounding the Aras River. Using the framework of hydropolitical self-organization, this study employs a dynamic approach to explain how the actions, unilateral decisions, and institutional mechanisms of upstream countries (Turkey and Armenia) reproduce patterns of conflict, competition, or cooperation within this basin, and how Iran’s water diplomacy can play an effective role in this self-organizing system. The research method is descriptive-analytical, based on official documents, reports from the Majlis Research Center, and data from the Ministry of Energy. The findings indicate that the quantitative and qualitative reduction of water, alterations to the river’s natural course, numerous dam constructions, and extensive upstream exploitation have acted as “self-organized drivers,” fostering competition-oriented patterns in the basin. A historical review of interactions also reveals that since 2016, Iran’s water diplomacy has lacked sufficient initiative, exacerbating conflictual self-organizing forces in the basin. Consequently, As a result, activating Iran's water diplomacy in the areas of fair distribution, water quality management, and regulation of upstream interventions is an urgent necessity; otherwise, the self-organized hydropolitical structure of the Aras Basin will move towards further hydropolitical tensions and challenges.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 22 February 2026