International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

International Quarterly of Foreign Relations

The Emerging Architecture of the Geopolitics of Technology: A Comparative Analysis of the Balance of Technological Power between the United States and China

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, National Defense University, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD Candidate in National Security, National Defense University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/fr.2026.560142.1732
Abstract
Technological rivalry between the United States and China has become one of the principal arenas for the redistribution of power in the international system. The central problem of this study concerns the relationship between this rivalry and the continuity or relative decline of American technological hegemony, and how it may affect the trajectory of transformation in the global balance of power. The research question is formulated as follows: has China’s technological rise been able to narrow the scope of the United States’ historical superiority in strategic domains of technology, and what implications does this transformation hold for the emerging global order? The article hypothesizes that the United States continues to retain an effective advantage in the foundational layers of innovation, including advanced semiconductor design, influential scientific production, venture capital, cloud infrastructure, and global rule making capacity. China, however, has developed independent capacities for generating technological power by relying on centralized industrial policy, the development of indigenous supply chains, the expansion of digital infrastructure, industrial applications of artificial intelligence, and data governance, thereby reducing part of its historical gap with the United States. The conceptual framework of the study is grounded in the interconnection between structural power, international political economy, and structural realism, and analyzes technology as a mechanism for producing, consolidating, and redistributing power. The research method is qualitative, descriptive, and analytical. Using a comparative case study approach, the study compares the positions of the two countries across four domains: semiconductors, artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure and telecommunications standards, and data governance and the innovation ecosystem.The data are collected from official reports, policy documents, peer reviewed academic sources, data from international organizations, and patent databases. The findings indicate that the technological rivalry between the two countries has not resulted in the full replacement of one power by another, yet it has led to the relative erosion of certain American advantages and to the emergence of new centers of technological rule making, production, and dependency formation. The outcome of this transformation is the emergence of the geopolitics of technology. In this condition, control over supply chains, technical standards, data flows, digital infrastructure, and technological alliances becomes one of the most important mechanisms for the redistribution of power in the international system.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 06 June 2026