همکاری‌های چین و روسیه؛ تحلیلی از منظر تئوری انتقال قدرت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکترای روابط بین ‏الملل دانشگاه گیلان، گیلان، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین ‏الملل دانشگاه گیلان، گیلان، ایران.

چکیده

نظم بین ‏المللی لیبرال که به‌عنوان نظم مبتنی بر هنجار‏های غربی و یا نظم ایجاد شده به‌وسیله ایالات‌متحده آمریکا شناخته می‏ شود بعد از جنگ جهانی دوم ایجاد شده و با فروپاشی اتحاد جماهیر شوروی تقویت شد. با وجود این مهم ‏ترین چالشی که این نظم درطی سال‏ های گذشته با آن روبه‌رو بوده است رشد دولت ‏های نوظهوری مانند چین و روسیه است که مخالف سلطه غرب و به‌ویژه آمریکا بوده و به دنبال بهره‌مندی از فرصت‏ های اصلاح در نظم بین ‏المللی هستند. در مقایسه با چین، روسیه نگاه تجدیدنظرطلبانه ‏‏ای به ساختار نظم بین ‏المللی داشته و چالش ‏های بیشتری را ایجاد می ‏کند. ایده اصلی مطرح شده در این مورد حاکی از این است که اگر چه روسیه به تنهایی قادر به مقابله با غرب و ایالات‌متحده آمریکا نیست، حمایت‏ سایر قدرت‏ های بزرگ و به‌ویژه چین، روسیه را به ایجاد چالش برای نظم لیبرالی ترغیب می‏ کند. بنابراین پرسش اصلی پژوهش به این موضوع می‏ پردازد که چه عواملی باعث می‏ شود چین از چالش‏ های ایجاد شده به‌وسیلۀ روسیه برای نظم لیبرالی و هژمونی ایالات‌متحده آمریکا حمایت کند. به‌عنوان پاسخی احتمالی، این پژوهش استدلال می‏ کند چالش ‏های روسیه از سه جهت برای چین حائز اهمیت است. نخست، چالش‏ های روسیه چین را از مواجهه مستقیم با ایالات‌متحده آمریکا دور و در عین حال توجهات را از رشد پکن منحرف می‏ کند؛ دوم، چشم‌انداز ارائه شده از سوی روسیه در تضاد با خواسته ‏های چین نیست و در بسیاری از موارد تأمین‌کننده منافع آن است و در نهایت تضعیف هسته آنگلو - آمریکایی نظم لیبرال که می‏ تواند به تضعیف هژمونی ایالات‌متحده منجر شود، چین را به همکاری و چالشگری روسیه ترغیب می‏ کند. روش پژوهش در این مطالعه توصیفی - تحلیلی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sino-Russian cooperation; an analysis from power transition theory

نویسندگان [English]

  • Asgar Safari 1
  • Masoumeh Rad Goudarzi 2
1 Ph.D. in International Relations, University of Guilan, Guilan, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Guilan, Guilan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The liberal international order, known as the Western-based order or the order created by the United States, was established after World War II and strengthened by the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, the most important challenge that this order has faced in recent years is the growth of emerging powers such as China and Russia, which oppose Western domination, especially the United States, and seek opportunities to reform the international order. Compared to China, Russia takes a revisionist view of the structure of international order and poses more challenges. The main idea here is that although Russia alone is not able to confront the West and the United States, the support of other major powers, especially China, encourages Russia to challenge the liberal order. The main question of the research, then, is what factors motivate China to support Russia's challenges to the liberal order and hegemony of the United States? As a possible answer, this study argues that Russia's challenges are important to China in three ways: First, Russia's challenges protect China from confrontation with the United States and attention to Beijing's growth. Second, the vision offered by Russia does not contradict China's demands and in many cases serves its interests. And finally, the weakening of the Anglo-American core of the liberal order, which could weaken US hegemony, encourages China to cooperate with Russia. The research method in this study is descriptive-analytical

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • International System
  • Liberal Order
  • Great Powers
  • Power transition
  • Competition
  • Cooperation
Akkaya, M. (2018). Power transition theory in case of Russia, available at: https://www.ilimvemedeniyet.com/power-transition-theory-in-case-of-russia.html, last access, 2021-5.
Baptista, J. P. F. D. O. (2012). Power transitions and conflict: Applying power transition theory and liberal-institutionalist theory to US-China relations (Master's thesis). Department of Political Science, university of Oslo.
BP Energy Outlook, Country and regional insights – China. (2018), Available at: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html.
Clark, I. (2011). China and the United States: a succession of hegemonies? International Affairs, 87(1), 13-28.
Clunan, Anne L. (2018). Russia and the Liberal World Order, Ethics & International Affairs, 1(32), 45-59.
Cong, w. (2021). As US wields sticks, China, Russia to counter dollar hegemony As Washington wields sticks, urgency rises for de-dollarization: expertsm Available at: https://www.globaltimes.cn/ page/202103/1219107.shtm.
Chakraborty, S. (2018). Significance of BRICS: Regional powers, global governance, and the roadmap for multipolar world. Emerging Economy Studies4(2), 182-191
Dobbins, J., Shatz, H. J., & Wyne, A. (2018). Russia Is a Rogue, Not a Peer; China Is a Peer, Not a Rogue: Different Challenges, Different Responses. RAND Arroyo center.
Elgin, K. (2018). Vostok 2018 Military Exercises Signal Greater Sino-Russian Cooperation, Available at: https://isdp.eu/vostok-2018-military-exercises-signal-greater-sino-russian-cooperation/
Foot, R. (2020). China’s rise and US hegemony: Renegotiating hegemonic order in East Asia?. International Politics57(2), 150-165.
Gady, F. (2019). China-Russia: The Entente Cordiale of the 21st Century. Available at; https:// www. eastwest. ngo/idea/china-russia-entente-cordiale- 21st-century.
Godehardt, N. (2016), No end of history: a Chinese alternative concept of international order? SWP Research Paper. (24).
Grosse, R., Gamso, J., & Nelson, R. C. (2021). China’s Rise, World Order, and the Implications for International Business. Management International Review, 1-26.
Harris, P. (2014). Problems with power-transition theory: Beyond the vanishing disparities thesis. Asian Security, 3(10), pp. 241-259.
Hillman, J. E. (2020). China and Russia: Economic Unequal's. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Huang, Q. (2020). The pandemic and the transformation of liberal international order. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 26(1), pp. 1-26.
Ikenberry, G. John. (2018). Why the Liberal World Order Will Survive. Ethics & International Affairs. 1(32), pp. 17-29.
Jeffery, R. (2009). Evaluating the ‘China threat’: power transition theory, the successor-state image and the dangers of historical analogies. Australian Journal of International Affairs. 2(63), 309-324.
Jia, L. (2020). Russia and China Energy Cooperation: Why Russia is still important to today’s China? (Doctoral dissertation,). Seoul National University.
Krickovic, A. (2017). The symbiotic China-Russia partnership: Cautious riser and desperate challenger. The Chinese Journal of International Politics10(3), 299-329.
Kim, M. H. (2019). A real driver of US–China trade conflict: The Sino–US competition for global hegemony and its implications for the future. International Trade, Politics and Development. 1(3), 30-40.
Kiselev, S. (2019). Energy bridges of Eurasia, Available at; https://www.ng.ru/ economics/ 2019-10-24/100_193324102019.html.
Kim, W., & Gates, S. (2015). Power transition theory and the rise of China. International Area Studies Review18(3), 219-226.
Lukin, A. (2020). The Russia–China entente and its future. International Politics, 1-18.
Liu, Qilin, Qi Lei, Huiming Xu, & Jiahai Y. (2018). China’s energy revolution strategy into 2030. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, (128), 78-89.
Lai, H. (2009), China’s Oil Diplomacy in Asia. in Asian Energy Security the Maritime Dimension, Edited by Hongyi Lai, 27-48, Palgrave Macmillan.
Lo, B. (2016), The Illusion of Convergence—Russia, China, and the BRICS. Russie.Nei. Visions, (92).
Larson, D. W, & Shevchenko, A. (2010). Status seekers: Chinese and Russian responses to US primacy. International Security, 4(34), 63-95.
Nouwen, M. & Legarda, I. H. (2020). China’s Rise as a Global Security Actor: Implications for NATO. The International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Nikolsky, A., Safronov, I. & Podrugina, V. (2019). The military alliance between Moscow and Beijing may turn from formal to real, Available at: https:// www. vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2019/10/06/812956-soyuz-moskvi-pekina.
Organski, Abramo FK. (1958.), World politics, Knopf publisher.
Paszak, P. (2020). China and Russia in Central Asia – Rivalry or Division of Labor? Available at; https://warsawinstitute.org/china-russia-central-asia-rivalry-division-labor/.
Russia–China Dialogue: The 2020 Model (2020), Russian International Affairs Council and Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, (58).
Rauch, C. (2016). Power transition theory and the peculiar case of Weimarian Germany. Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, working paper, (28).
Sergunin, Alexander, & Leonid Karabeshkin. (2016), Understanding Russia's soft power strategy. Politics,. 3-4(35), 347-363.
Sperlich, Y. (2015). From power transition to economic integration theory. A review of the BRICS literature.
Steeves, B. B., Ouriques, H. R. (2016). Energy security: China and the United States and the divergence in renewable energy. Contexto Internacional, 38(2), 643-662.
Stefanovich, D. (2019). Russia to Help China Develop an Early Warning System, Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2019/10/russia-to-help-china-develop-an-early-warning-system/
Trunkos, J. (2020). Comparing Russian, Chinese and American Soft Power Use: A New Approach. Global Society, 1-24.
Tocci, Nathalie. (2018). The Demise of the International Liberal Order and the Future of the European Project. the Institute Affair Internationalis (IAI), (18).
Tianping, K. (2018). China’s Role in International Order, Available at: http://www.geopolitika.hu/en/2018/06/04/chinas-role-in-international-order , last visited, January 14, 2019.01.14.
Tan, F. & Aizhu, CH. (2020). Saudi Arabia and Russia in tight race to become China's top oil supplier in 2020, Available at; https://www.reuters.com/ article/ china-oil-saudi-russia-int-idUSKBN2800H0.
Wishnick, E. (2018). The Sino-Russian Partnership and the East Asian Order. Asian Perspective, 3(42), 355-386.
Yang, S. Y. (2013). Power transition, balance of power, and the rise of china: a theoretical reflection about rising great powers. The China Review, 35-66.
Yilmaz, S., & Xiangyu, W. (2019). Power Transition Theory Revisited: When Rising China Meets Dissatisfied United States. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 5(03), 317-341.
Yilmaz, S., & Daksueva, O. (2019). The energy nexus in China–Russia strategic partnership. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific19(1), 63-88.
Yihe, X. (2021). Russia targets significant hike in gas exports to China. Available at; https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/russia-targets- significant-hike-in-gas-exports-to-china/2-1-953577.
Zhu, Zh. (2005). Power Transition and US-China Relations: Is War Inevitable?. Journal of International and Area Studies, 1-24.
Zhao, S. (2018). A Revisionist Stakeholder: China and the Post-World War II World Order. Journal of Contemporary China, (27), 1-16.