از جدایی اقتصادی تا پیوند بیشتر: تحلیلی بر آینده جنگ تجاری امریکا علیه چین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار گروه روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

امروزه جنگ تجاری امریکا و چین یکی از عمده ترین چالش ها در عرصه روابط بین الملل است. محافل اکادمیک از زوایای گوناگونی به تجزیه و تحلیل این جنگ پرداخته اند. این مقاله نیز در پی پاسخ به این پرسش است که جنگ تجاری امریکا علیه چین سر انجام موجب شکل گیری چه نوع واکنش اقتصادی بنیادینی از سوی چین خواهد شد؟ فرضیه مقاله که به روش توصیفی تحلیلی بررسی شده آن است که واکنش چین به جنگ تجاری امریکا تابع ادراک چین از اهداف امریکا است. اگر در پکن جنگ تجاری امریکا علیه چین ناشی از رقابت ذاتی این کشور و چین برای کسب موقعیت هژمونی تلقی شود ممکن است چین به سمت "جدایی اقتصادی" با امریکا حرکت کند. منظور از رقابت ذاتی، رقابتی است که به اقتضای ذات قدرت، بین دو قدرت بزرگ برای کسب موقعیت هژمونی اتفاق می افتد. اما اگر در پکن جنگ تجاری امریکا علیه چین ناشی از تعارض نهادی در نظام سیاسی و اقتصادی چین و ایالات متحده تلقی گردد، واکنش چین احتمالا در شکل انجام اصلاحات اقتصادی و حرکت به سمت "پیوند اقتصادی بیشتر" با امریکا خواهد بود. یافته های مقاله نشان می دهد که چین در چارچوب یک استراتژی بزرگ هر دو ملاحظه را مد نظر دارد و از این منظر برای پکن فرقی نخواهد داشت که بایدن در قدرت باشد یا ترامپ.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

From the economic decoupling to The further Connections: An Analysis of the Future of America's Trade War with China

نویسنده [English]

  • Nowzar shafiee
Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Today, the US-China trade war is one of the major challenges in international relations. Academic circles have analyzed this war from different perspective. This article also seeks to answer this question that what kind of fundamental economic response from China will the US trade war against China eventually lead to? The hypothesis of the article, which is examined in a descriptive-analytical way, is that China's involvement in the US trade war will be a function of China's perception of US goals. If the US trade war against China in Beijing is seen as the result of an inherent rivalry between the United States and China for hegemony, China may move toward economic decoupling from the United States. Inherent rivalry refers to the competition that occurs due to the nature of power between two great powers to gain a hegemonic position. But if in Beijing the US trade war against China is seen as the result of an institutional conflict in the political and economic system of China and the United States, China's response is likely to be in the form of economic reforms and a move toward "greater economic ties" with the United States. The article's findings show that China is regarding both considerations as part of a larger strategy, and from this perspective it doesn't matter to Beijing whether Biden is in power or Trump.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Offensive Realism
  • The Further Links School
  • Economic decoupling School
  • Market Reform School
  • Sino-US strategic competition
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