Introduction:

competition and tensions among regional and extra-regional powers over the past decades. This region, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of the newly established republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan, has become one of the main axes of geopolitical conflicts. Iran, as the southern neighbor of both countries, has historically sought to maintain a balance of power in this area and prevent the presence and influence of extra-regional actors. The Islamic Republic of Iran, due to Armenia’s unique geopolitical position, places special importance on this country; a matter that has made Tehran sensitive to any changes in the regional geopolitical balance. In this regard, Azerbaijan’s attempts to create a corridor through Armenian territory aimed at accessing Nakhchivan have involuntarily involved Iran in the geopolitical dimensions of the conflict between the two countries. Currently, Armenia holds a different and more complex position in the regional geopolitical structure than in the past.

Research Question:

The main research question is: What role does Armenia play in the confrontation of interests between Iran and Azerbaijan, and how has it become a key factor in the regional threat balance?

Research Hypothesis:



The research hypothesis posits that the Islamic Republic of Iran, by maintaining its geopolitical linkage with Armenia, opposing territorial changes, and leveraging Armenia’s diplomatic and geo-economic capacities, seeks to engage in indirect balancing against the security threats arising from Azerbaijan’s deepening cooperation with Israel and Turkey. In this framework, Armenia functions not merely as a neighboring state but as a structural instrument in Iran’s strategy to contain and manage surrounding threats.



Methodology (and Theoretical Framework if there are):

In this study, the Threat Balance Theory is specifically employed to analyze the competition between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan in Armenia. This theory provides an analytical framework to examine the security, political, and economic threats that Iran and Azerbaijan face in the South Caucasus region.

Results and discussion:

An analysis of Iran’s foreign policy pattern in the South Caucasus, based on the theoretical framework of Threat Balance, indicates that Tehran’s approach to developments in this region is driven less by traditional power balancing and more by the perception and management of threats arising from the aggressive intentions and potential capacities of rival actors. The Islamic Republic of Iran, with a profound understanding of the strategic linkages between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel, is adopting a multidimensional approach aimed at neutralizing security, geopolitical, and geoeconomic threats in its surrounding environment.

Within this framework, Armenia has emerged as a potential partner for creating a balance against rival power axes. Strengthening political and cultural ties with Yerevan, supporting the existing border status, and actively opposing initiatives such as the Zangezur Corridor all reflect Iran’s orientation toward a threat-balancing strategy.

Iran’s foreign policy behavior in recent years indicates that the perception of threats, rather than the material power of actors, has been the primary driver of its security and regional decision-making. Iran perceives Azerbaijan not merely due to its military capabilities, but primarily because of its strategic partnerships with actors opposing Iran’s national interests. The combination of these threats has pushed Iran’s foreign policy toward adopting deterrent, defensive, and balanced positions.

In this regard, emphasizing the principle of “border stability” as a national security red line, conducting military drills near its northwestern borders, and issuing explicit diplomatic statements against new transit projects all signal Iran’s high level of strategic sensitivity to developments in the South Caucasus. This deterrence-oriented approach toward threatening alliances reflects an active strategy to counter unwanted geopolitical changes.

An analysis of current geopolitical trends in the South Caucasus outlines three possible scenarios for the future of Iran’s relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia:

• Continuation of Iran’s balancing policy:

If current trends persist, Iran will continue its threat-balancing policy and, by deepening its relations with Armenia, will seek to limit the influence of the Turkey–Azerbaijan–Israel axis. This approach will aim to prevent structural changes in the regional order.

• Escalation of geopolitical tensions:

If Azerbaijan and its allies continue unilateral efforts to alter geopolitical borders and establish new transit routes, the likelihood of political or even security confrontations will increase. In this scenario, Iran may move toward forming new regional alliances to counter these developments.

• Possibility of relative de-escalation and adjustment of relations:

If threatening variables such as the presence of extra-regional actors or attempts to change borders—are contained, the possibility of Iran and Azerbaijan entering a regional security dialogue will rise. Although this scenario faces significant obstacles under current conditions, it cannot be entirely ruled out in the long term.

In summary, Iran’s approach to developments in the South Caucasus is rooted in a realistic and threat-based strategy, which seeks to prevent the emergence of geopolitical changes contrary to its strategic interests by leveraging regional instruments in a calculated and proactive manner.

Conclusion:

The geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, especially the structural changes in the power relations and the formation of new axes of regional cooperation and competition, have posed a complex and multidimensional challenge for the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this context, Iran, which shares direct borders and security concerns related to regional developments, requires a deep and comprehensive understanding of composite and perceptual threats that go beyond mere military and economic power indicators. Therefore, analyzing Iran’s behavior toward these developments without employing the theoretical framework of threat balance which considers threat perception, actors’ intentions, and alliance linkages would be incomplete.