The security strategy of the United States in West Asia during Donald Trump's second term is designed based on a combination of hard and soft tools, centered on containing the Islamic Republic of Iran.This qualitative research adopts a descriptive-analytical method and uses a combined theoretical framework of “offensive realism,” “multilayer deterrence,” and “smart power” to examine this strategy.The main research question is: What are the features, pillars, and operational mechanisms of the United States' security strategy in West Asia during Trump's second term toward the Islamic Republic of Iran? The hypothesis of the study is that this strategy has transitioned from direct intervention to network-centric deterrence and, while retaining the option of direct military intervention in case of necesary, is based on empowering regional partners and the gradual collapse of the political system through smart sanctions, hybrid warfare, and anti-Iranian alliances.The main pillars of this strategy include military intervention, partner proliferation, basing strategy shift, sanctions, pressure-centric diplomacy, and innovation.Finally, although this strategy is challenging in the short term, due to its aggressive and unilateralist nature as well as Iran's resilience capacity, it faces serious obstacles in the long term.



Extended Abstract

Introduction:

The West Asia region, due to its unique geopolitical, geostrategic, and geo-economic significance, including vast energy reserves and control over vital international chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, has perpetually been a focal point for global powers, particularly the United States. Within this landscape, the Islamic Republic of Iran, as an independent and anti-hegemonic key actor, is perceived by Washington as the primary obstacle to realizing its desired hegemonic order. The strategic confrontation has made Iran the central focus of U.S. security strategy.This research aims to analyze the dimensions and components of the second Trump administration's security strategy in West Asia, focusing on the Islamic Republic of Iran. The central research question is: What are the characteristics and constituent elements of the new U.S. strategy towards Iran, and how is it being operationalized?

Research Question

What are the characteristics and constituent elements of the new U.S. strategy towards Iran during Donald Trump's potential second term, and how is this network-centric deterrence strategy being operationalized in West Asia?

Research Hypothesis

The U.S. security strategy in West Asia during a potential second Trump administration is designed based on a combination of hard and soft tools, centered on containing the Islamic Republic of Iran. Instead of direct and costly intervention, it emphasizes "empowering regional partners" and the "gradual collapse of the establishment" through smart sanctions, hybrid warfare, and creating a network of anti-Iranian alliances. Although this strategy is challenging in the short term, due to its aggressive and unilateralist nature as well as Iran's resilience capacity, it faces serious structural obstacles in the long term and is doomed to failure.

Methodology (and Theoretical Framework)

This qualitative research employs a descriptive-analytical method, relying on primary sources such as official U.S. strategy documents, Congressional testimonies,statements by American officials,and reports from prominent Washington think tanks.

The analysis is guided by a combined theoretical framework consisting of three complementary approaches;Offensive Realism (Explains the underlying motivation and ultimate goal (why)), Multilayer Deterrence (Explains the overarching strategy (how)) and Smart Power (Explains the tactical instruments (with what)).

Results and Discussion

The findings indicate that Washington's new strategy is operationalized through seven main, interconnected pillars:

1. Military Intervention and Use of Force: The U.S. maintains the threat of unilateral and unpredictable military force to validate its deterrence. This includes potential preemptive strikes, especially concerning Iran's nuclear program. Enhancing the qualitative and quantitative military edge of Israel and strengthening integrated defense systems are key actions under this pillar.

2. Partner Proliferation and Empowerment: Recognizing the limits of unilateral action, the U.S. strategy focuses on building a network of regional allies (Israel, Gulf Arab states) and transferring a greater share of the deterrence burden to them. This involves arming partners, facilitating intelligence sharing, conducting joint exercises, and promoting a doctrine of "active defense" among Arab allies against Iran. Initiatives like the Abraham Accords and the Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) system are central to this network-building effort.

3. Shift in Basing Strategy: The U.S. is transitioning from large, centralized bases (e.g., Al Udeid in Qatar) vulnerable to Iranian missiles towards a "lighter footprint" and "agile combat employment." This involves smaller, distributed, and often more distant facilities to enhance force resilience and support over-the-horizon operations using air and naval assets.

4. Sanctions: Sanctions remain a constant and evolving tool. They have shifted from broad-based to "smart" and targeted sanctions aimed at crippling Iran's economy, disrupting its military-industrial complex, and fueling public discontent. The ultimate goal is to systematically weaken the state's functionality.

5. Pressure-Centric Diplomacy: Diplomacy is viewed as the final step, but from a position of maximum pressure.

6. Regime Collapse: The overarching objective has evolved from "regime change" to "regime collapse." This long-term strategy aims not for immediate overthrow but for the systematic and gradual erosion of the Islamic Republic of Iran from within by exacerbating economic pressures, social discontent, and internal divisions. The U.S. seeks to foster conditions for an internal upheaval.

7. Innovation:CENTCOM emphasizes innovation in technology and operational concepts to maintain a battlefield advantage.

Conclusion

The U.S. security strategy in West Asia under a potential second Trump administration represents a significant evolution towards a complex, multi-layered, and network-centric approach to deter and contain Iran. While integrating offensive realism's goals, multilayer deterrence's methods, and smart power's tools makes this strategy formidable and challenging in the short term, it contains inherent contradictions and faces significant structural obstacles. Its aggressive and unilateralist nature undermines regional stability, potentially galvanizing further resistance. Furthermore, Iran's demonstrated capacity for resilience, its strategic partnerships with global powers like China and Russia, and the deep-seated distrust among U.S. regional allies pose serious challenges to the strategy's long-term sustainability and success. For the Islamic Republic of Iran, countering this strategy necessitates strengthening its "resistance economy," enhancing its defensive deterrence capabilities (especially in missiles and drones), activating smart public diplomacy, recalibrating the West's perception of Iranian weakness, and pursuing proactive and constructive diplomacy with neighbors and independent global actors to prevent the formation of a unified anti-Iranian front. Ultimately, the strategy's failure is predicted due to its paradoxical nature of creating instability while seeking hegemony and its underestimation of Iran's internal cohesion and adaptive capacities.