فصلنامه روابط خارجی

فصلنامه روابط خارجی

جنگ اوکراین و گذار به نظم مالی دیجیتال؛ درس‌آموخته‌هایی برای ایران در مواجهه با هژمونی دلار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 گروه جامعه‌شناسی سیاسی، دانشکده معارف اسلامی و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)، تهران، ایران.
10.22034/fr.2026.573198.1759
چکیده
این پژوهش به بررسی پیامدهای جنگ اوکراین بر اقتصاد سیاسی عصر دیجیتال و توازن قدرت در نظام پولی بین‌المللی می‌پردازد. در همین راستا، پیامدهای این نزاع ژئوپلیتیک بر هژمونی دلار و همچنین، موقعیت ایران در نظام پولی بین‌المللی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. پرسش اصلی مقاله آن است که جنگ اوکراین و گسترش ارزهای دیجیتال، به‌ویژه ارزهای دیجیتال بانک مرکزی، چگونه می‌توانند روند تضعیف تدریجی هژمونی دلار را تسریع کنند و این تحول چه درس‌آموخته‌هایی برای مدیریت اقتصاد سیاسی ایران دارد. فرضیه پژوهش عبارت است از اینکه تحریم‌های مالی علیه روسیه و قطع دسترسی این کشور به زیرساخت‌های پرداخت بین‌المللی، روند گذار به نظم مالی چندقطبی و دیجیتال را شتاب داده و هم‌زمان زمینه کاهش تدریجی وابستگی به دلار را فراهم کرده است. روش تحقیق، کیفی و مبتنی بر نهادگرایی تاریخی و تحلیل اسنادی است. پژوهشگران، داده‌های خود را از منابع ثانویه شامل مقالات علمی، گزارش‌های اندیشکده‌ها و اسناد رسمی گردآوری نموده‌اند و در تحلیل داده‌ها بر توالی تاریخی و سازوکارهای نهادی متمرکز شده‌اند تا نقش نقاط عطف بحرانی در تحول نظم مالی جهانی تبیین گردد.

یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که جنگ اوکراین به‌مثابه نقطه عطفی بحرانی، سه روند اصلی را تسریع می‌کند: نخست، تحریم‌های مالی غرب آسیب‌پذیری ساختار دلاری را آشکار و انگیزه برای ایجاد سازوکارهای پرداخت جایگزین را افزایش می‌دهد؛ دوم، گسترش رمزارزها و ارزهای دیجیتال بانک مرکزی زمینه استقلال از زیرساخت‌های دلاری را فراهم می‌سازد؛ و سوم، چین با بهره‌گیری از یوآن دیجیتال، موقعیتی برتر در نظم مالی نوظهور به‌دست می‌آورد. با این حال، تضعیف هژمونی دلار فرآیندی تدریجی و مشروط به رفع چالش‌های نهادی، فنی و حقوقی ارزیابی می‌شود. بر این اساس، مقاله نتیجه می‌گیرد که جنگ اوکراین شتاب‌دهنده گذار به یک نظم مالی چندقطبی است. در پایان، درس‌آموخته‌های کلیدی این رخداد برای ایران و الزامات کاهش آسیب‌پذیری در برابر تحریم‌های دلارپایه مورد بحث قرار می‌گیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Ukraine War and the Transition to a Digital Financial Order: Lessons for Iran in Confronting Dollar Hegemony

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Javad Yazdani 1
Seyyed Javad Hoseini 2
1 Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Political Sociology, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Political Sciences, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, I.R.Iran.
چکیده English

1- Introduction

The evolution of communication technologies has consistently exerted profound influences on political and economic structures throughout history. From the printing press to digital revolutions, each communicative transformation has fundamentally altered governmental, economic, and social architectures. In the contemporary era, digital technology plays a pivotal role in restructuring human interaction and creating fundamental changes across multiple dimensions of socio-economic life, particularly in financial transactions and commercial communications.

Following the establishment of the Bretton Woods monetary system after World War II, the U.S. dollar emerged as the primary instrument for maintaining American economic hegemony. Dollar dominance over global markets has been fundamental to U.S. foreign policy and power projection internationally. This structural hegemony has enabled Washington to utilize the international financial system as a strategic instrument—what scholars term "financial weaponization"—against rival states.

Emerging technologies such as blockchain and digital currencies have enabled financial transactions without traditional intermediaries like banks and financial institutions. These innovations have not only accelerated financial processes but significantly reduced dependence on centralized traditional financial systems. With the emergence of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), particularly China's digital yuan, we are witnessing structural changes in the global financial architecture that potentially threaten dollar hegemony.

The Ukraine war serves as a critical juncture that has accelerated this transition process unprecedentedly. The U.S. and Western allies' response through crippling financial sanctions and Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT system highlighted the inherent vulnerabilities of dollar-dependent financial architectures for all international actors. This crisis demonstrated that monetary digitalization is no longer merely a technical innovation but a security and strategic imperative for maintaining national sovereignty against transnational pressures.

This research examines the consequences of the Ukraine war on the political economy of the digital age and the reconfiguration of power within the international monetary system. The primary objective is explicating how this geopolitical conflict and resulting financial sanctions have accelerated monetary digitalization and CBDC expansion, while evaluating its impact on dollar hegemony. The research hypothesis posits that "dollar weaponization" in the Ukraine crisis has triggered an international institutional response toward replacing traditional payment systems with digital infrastructures, which, through digital yuan pioneering, provides strategic opportunities for Iran to mitigate sanctions impact.

2- Theoretical Framework

This research employs the theoretical framework of "techno-feudalism" to analyze the Ukraine war's consequences on digital-age political economy and challenges confronting dollar hegemony. This concept, introduced by Yanis Varoufakis, explicates recent transformations in the global capitalist system, referring to profound structural changes wherein economic and social power increasingly transfers from traditional state institutions and markets toward large technology corporations.

The theory's foundation rests on the argument that classical capitalism has undergone fundamental transformation with digital technologies and online platforms. In this new paradigm, profit from commodity production is no longer primary; rather, "cloud rent"—income derived from controlling platforms, data, and digital infrastructures—has become the principal source of wealth and power accumulation. Technology giants, by possessing these new resources, play roles analogous to medieval feudal lords, with users becoming digital subjects of this system.

A key consequence is the metamorphosis of global financial systems. The emergence and expansion of digital currencies, both decentralized forms and CBDCs, provide novel instruments for challenging traditional financial systems based on fiat currencies and central bank control. These currencies potentially extract financial power from state and central bank monopolies, transferring it to new actors—particularly technology giants—or shifting the power balance favoring nation-states pioneering these technologies.

Geopolitical crises such as the Ukraine war play catalytic roles in accelerating transition to this new order. Extensive economic sanctions against Russia and countries' efforts to find dollar-based payment system alternatives have accelerated digital currency and alternative financial system growth and adoption. China's digital yuan emergence can be analyzed within this framework—an effort by a major economic power to challenge dollar hegemony and create independent international financial infrastructure influenced and controlled by technology institutions and supporting governments.

Techno-feudalism encompasses several key characteristics: concentration of power in technology companies functioning as modern feudal lords; replacement of markets with platforms; transformation of profit from production into rent from platform and data ownership; user dependence on platforms; and weakening state roles. This framework provides a comprehensive analytical lens for understanding how digital transformation reshapes global power structures and financial systems.

3- Methodology

This research employs documentary studies and historical institutionalism as its methodological approach. Historical institutionalism, an important approach in social sciences particularly within political science and economics, emphasizes institutions' role in shaping social, political, and economic behaviors and outcomes over time. This methodological approach addresses the central premise that institutions—including formal organizations (government, parliament, courts), laws, procedures, and informal norms and traditions—not only influence current decisions and interactions but constrain and guide future trajectories and configurations.

Historical institutionalism emphasizes several key concepts: **path dependence**, suggesting initial choices create self-reinforcing patterns difficult to reverse; **critical junctures**, moments of significant change when structural influences on political action relax and opportunities for agency and choice expand; and **institutional layering**, where new institutions are added to existing ones rather than replacing them entirely.

In this research, the 2008 financial crisis and Ukraine war are identified as critical junctures accelerating institutional changes in the global financial system. The methodology examines how these events created windows of opportunity for challenging dollar hegemony and developing alternative payment systems. Analysis traces the historical sequence from the Bretton Woods system through the 2008 crisis to the current Ukraine conflict, demonstrating how each critical juncture shaped subsequent institutional developments.

Documentary analysis encompasses official policy documents, central bank reports, academic literature on digital currencies and financial sanctions, and international organization publications. This comprehensive approach enables evidence triangulation and robust analysis of complex interactions between geopolitical events, technological innovation, and institutional change in the global financial system.

4- Discussion

4,1- Economic Sanctions Against Russia and Financial System Transformation

Following Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, Western countries imposed comprehensive financial, commercial, and technological sanctions. The most severe measure was freezing $300 billion of Russian Central Bank foreign assets by the U.S. Federal Reserve. These unprecedented actions—effectively confiscating one major central bank's assets by another—fundamentally challenged post-WWII financial system norms.

This action's immediate consequence was reduced trust among non-American investors and governments in asset security within the dollar-based payment system. Previously, while actors recognized the U.S. technically possessed capability to freeze such assets, few believed Washington would actually exercise this option. This measure catalyzed many countries and global investors to seek alternative pathways for storing and transferring assets, exemplifying "path dependence" where initial decisions (widespread dollar usage) generate long-term consequences (vulnerability to sanctions).

4,2- Digital Yuan Application for Sanctions Circumvention

With sanctions intensification, Russia initially attempted receiving payment for energy and raw material exports in rubles. However, this solution proved unsuccessful due to the Russian economy's limited scale and the ruble's lack of international market attractiveness.

Consequently, Russia and other countries seeking dollar dependence reduction turned to alternative financial systems. The Russian government in 2024 passed legislation allowing companies to utilize digital currencies like Bitcoin in international transactions. Among digital currencies, the digital yuan proved more trustworthy due to China's central bank support.

Russia not only proposed launching a dedicated BRICS member currency but also favored China's digital yuan. The digital yuan was a low-usage exchange system before 2022, with many international investors preferring the dollar payment system despite its limitations. However, following the Ukraine war and extensive sanctions, Russian assets prevented from entering the dollar cycle moved toward the digital yuan-based payment system.

This trend extended beyond Russia. Many non-Western investors and countries gradually realized that maintaining assets in dollar infrastructures meant complete dependence on U.S. financial and political decisions. Consequently, international asset transfer processes to the digital yuan accelerated, with traditional Western financial infrastructure replacement by new Chinese financial systems becoming tangible reality.

4,3- Economic Digitalization Acceleration and Dollar Hegemony Decline

This represents not the first time war has transformed global economic power balance. In World War II, Britain's economic dominance severely weakened, with the dollar replacing the pound as the international financial system's dominant currency. Similarly, the Ukraine war has paved pathways for changing global financial order, with substantial global capital exiting the dollar system and entering alternative financial systems.

While the United States attempted pushing Russia into financial isolation through economic sanctions, these sanctions actually accelerated structural changes in the international payment system. International investors, sanctioned governments, and even countries concerned about excessive dollar dominance are exploring new options for financial transactions.

In this context, China, through developing digital financial infrastructures and providing the digital yuan, has become one of these changes' main actors. If this trend continues, it will lead to long-term dollar hegemony weakening as more countries turn toward digital currencies and decentralized financial systems. However, this process faces challenges including high digital currency volatility, lack of appropriate legal and regulatory infrastructures, and Western countries' resistance.

Research findings indicate the Ukraine war, as a critical juncture, accelerates three main trends: First, Western financial sanctions reveal dollar structure vulnerability and increase incentives for creating alternative payment mechanisms; Second, cryptocurrency and CBDC expansion provides foundations for independence from dollar infrastructures; Third, China, by leveraging the digital yuan and developing technological infrastructures, gains superior positioning in the emerging financial order.

5- Conclusion and Suggestions

5,1- Conclusions

This research concludes that the Ukraine war serves as an accelerator for transition to a multipolar financial order wherein dollar dominance diminishes and economic power redistributes among blocs such as BRICS and the West. However, dollar hegemony weakening is evaluated as a gradual process conditional upon resolving institutional, technical, and legal challenges.

The techno-feudalism theoretical framework provides valuable insights for understanding how digital transformation reshapes global power structures. Digital currency emergence and alternative payment systems represent not merely technological innovation but fundamental shifts in global finance architecture. Power concentration in technology platforms and profit transformation into rent from data and platform ownership characterize this new order.

The Ukraine war demonstrated that financial sanctions, while effective short-term, can accelerate alternative financial infrastructure development that ultimately undermines the very hegemony they were designed to protect. Freezing Russian central bank assets served as a critical revelation regarding risks of maintaining reserves in dollar-denominated assets within Western-controlled financial systems.

China's digital yuan represents a strategic challenge to dollar hegemony, offering a state-backed alternative combining digital technology efficiency with central bank backing stability. Unlike decentralized cryptocurrencies, CBDCs maintain state control while offering digital transaction benefits. This model particularly attracts countries seeking dollar dependence reduction while maintaining monetary sovereignty.

5,2- Policy Recommendations for Iran

Based on research findings, several key policy recommendations emerge for Iran:

1- Accelerate CBDC Development: Iran should prioritize developing and implementing a digital rial, providing alternative payment mechanisms for international trade and reducing dollar-based sanctions vulnerability.

2- Strengthen Regional Payment Systems: Iran should actively participate in developing regional payment systems, particularly within SCO and potential BRICS payment mechanisms, expanding bilateral arrangements with major trading partners.

3- Invest in Blockchain Infrastructure: Developing robust blockchain infrastructure is essential for participating in the emerging digital financial order, requiring investment in domestic technology development and regulatory framework creation.

4- Diversify Reserve Holdings: Iran's foreign exchange reserves should diversify away from dollar-denominated assets, increasing holdings in gold, alternative currencies (particularly yuan), and potentially digital assets.

5- Enhance Financial Technology Sector: Supporting the domestic fintech sector creates indigenous solutions for digital payments and financial services, reducing Western technology dependence.

6- Strengthen BRICS Economic Ties: Iran should deepen economic integration with BRICS countries, participating in financial initiatives including potential common currency projects.

The transition to a digital financial order presents both challenges and opportunities for Iran. While facing significant obstacles due to sanctions and technological gaps, dollar hegemony weakening and alternative financial systems emergence create strategic openings for reducing economic isolation and building resilience against external financial pressures.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Digital Economy
Ukraine War
Dollar
Digital Yuan
Political Economy

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