The Ukrainian conflict, as one of the decisive geopolitical developments of the last decade, has far-reaching consequences on the security, economic, and institutional architecture of Eurasia. The main issue of this research is to examine the effects of Russia's possible victory in this war on regional structures and the position of middle powers, especially Iran. The aim of the study is to analyze possible future paths and assess the opportunities and threats arising from it for Iran's foreign policy. The research method is a qualitative-analytical scenario writing that, using the framework of scenario theory and within the framework of neorealism and complex interdependence approaches, key variables and crisis-causing factors were identified and four distinct scenarios were drawn: "Expansion of Russian hegemony and isolation of the West", "Structural confrontation and multipolar game", "Russia-China convergence and the path to Central Asia's liberation", and "Sudden fall and collapse of central control". The findings indicate that the first two scenarios will have the highest probability of realization, since they are consistent with the logic of power and the mutual reaction of the main actors; The third scenario is conceivable as a complementary trend in the context of continued Western pressure on Moscow, and the fourth scenario, although unlikely, has the greatest destabilizing potential. The results of the study indicate that the common consequences of all scenarios include the reconfiguration of the Eurasian security architecture, the redefinition of energy and transit routes, and the enhancement of the role of middle powers. From a policy perspective, it is suggested that the West should focus on maintaining deterrence and reducing energy dependence on Russia; China should manage cooperation with Moscow by respecting the sovereignty of host countries and diversifying trade routes; and Iran should adopt a smart balancing strategy to preserve its strategic independence by taking advantage of transit opportunities and economic diplomacy.